For the Kingman realtors that think Kingman houses will gain value and/or stay at the current values, perhaps they should check out the SoCal market. Many areas of Socal are already less expensive than Mohave County and have further to fall.
http://www.dailybulletin.com/ci_7981286
I.E. home sales tumble
By Michael Rappaport, Staff Writer
Article Created: 01/15/2008 06:57:15 PM PST
December usually isn't a bad month for home sales, but December 2007 was one for the books.
According to Tuesday's monthly report from DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin.
Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.
The median price of a home in Southern California has dropped from $490,000 to $425,000 in the last year, with every one of the six counties in the region down by more than 10 percent.
San Bernardino County's off 14.9percent to $315,000
*******
http://www.pe.com/business/local/stories/PE_News_Local_B_dataquick16.3537580.html
Region's housing market stays in 'midst of turbulence'
10:00 PM PST on Tuesday, January 15, 2008
By JACK KATZANEKThe Press-Enterprise
Home prices in Inland Southern California continued to fall in December, and sales numbers in Riverside and San Bernardino counties are down about 50 percent from where they were a year ago, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The record highs were $432,000 in Riverside County and $380,000 in San Bernardino County, both set about a year ago. Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.
And this statement from the article says it all:
Esmael Adibi, chief economist for Chapman University, said mortgage rates are looking favorable right now, but prices won't start to rebound until the buyers come back to the table. Right now, Adibi said, most are not earning enough money to qualify.
And that is the problem, prices got out of control everywhere and it wasn't a problem because no one was required to qualify for the loans. Now that banks are starting to act responsibly, prices will have to drop to a price that is affordable to buyers.
Showing posts with label affordability. Show all posts
Showing posts with label affordability. Show all posts
Thursday, January 17, 2008
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
How low must housing prices go?
Commentary: Figure at least another 20% before families can afford to buy
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:23 p.m. EST Dec. 3, 2007
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Housing will revive when prices come down to the point where demand rises enough to reduce the huge supply of unsold homes now overhanging the market. That said, this point is a long way off.
Today, median home prices are 3.5 times the size of median annual family incomes. This may be down from the recent peak of 4.2 times incomes reached last year, but it's way above the 2.8 times that home prices averaged during 1984-2000, when lots of homes were bought, sold and built.
And if you think 2.8 is low, check out the early 1970s. That was when home prices were only 2.3 times median family incomes, and housing was selling like gangbusters.
To get prices back to 2.8 times family incomes would require a drop of 20% from today's levels - and this does not take into account interest rates and lending standards.
To equal the affordability of the early 1970s, prices would have to fall a whopping 38%.
Those who say such declines can't happen are ignoring how fast home prices rose in the first half of this decade. In most parts of the country, housing prices doubled during this five-year period while incomes went up only a fraction as much.
Sellers could always hold the line and wait for family incomes to rise. But this clearly won't happen overnight - and, besides, it's a buyer's market and no one wants to buy today knowing that prices might well be lower tomorrow.
After all, when it comes to housing prices, what matters most is not the cost of construction, nor what surrounding homes might be selling for.
Simply put, it's affordability.
And until they are more affordable, houses won't sell.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/irwin-kellner-how-low-must/story.aspx?guid=%7B501755BA-5015-43E7-B2A3-E2A3536ADF71%7D&dist=hplatest
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:23 p.m. EST Dec. 3, 2007
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Housing will revive when prices come down to the point where demand rises enough to reduce the huge supply of unsold homes now overhanging the market. That said, this point is a long way off.
Today, median home prices are 3.5 times the size of median annual family incomes. This may be down from the recent peak of 4.2 times incomes reached last year, but it's way above the 2.8 times that home prices averaged during 1984-2000, when lots of homes were bought, sold and built.
And if you think 2.8 is low, check out the early 1970s. That was when home prices were only 2.3 times median family incomes, and housing was selling like gangbusters.
To get prices back to 2.8 times family incomes would require a drop of 20% from today's levels - and this does not take into account interest rates and lending standards.
To equal the affordability of the early 1970s, prices would have to fall a whopping 38%.
Those who say such declines can't happen are ignoring how fast home prices rose in the first half of this decade. In most parts of the country, housing prices doubled during this five-year period while incomes went up only a fraction as much.
Sellers could always hold the line and wait for family incomes to rise. But this clearly won't happen overnight - and, besides, it's a buyer's market and no one wants to buy today knowing that prices might well be lower tomorrow.
After all, when it comes to housing prices, what matters most is not the cost of construction, nor what surrounding homes might be selling for.
Simply put, it's affordability.
And until they are more affordable, houses won't sell.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/irwin-kellner-how-low-must/story.aspx?guid=%7B501755BA-5015-43E7-B2A3-E2A3536ADF71%7D&dist=hplatest
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
Las Vegas Housing Market Bits and Pieces
Some bits and pieces on the Las Vegas housing market. A lot of these articles say the same things I've been saying regarding prices and speculation:
******
http://www.lvrj.com/business/9660427.html
Southern Nevada's economy, dragged down by the slumping housing industry, posted another month of modest performance.
New and existing home sales dropped 40 percent and new home permits are off by 45 percent, contributing to a 0.11 percent decline in the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators.......
"My contention is that the lack of white-collar jobs and relatively high housing costs would eventually slow down the migration, but without good data, it's hard to know for sure. Affordable housing was one of the big draws and now that's pretty much gone, for now."
******
http://www.lvrj.com/business/9638272.html
"What continues to drive the national numbers," Duncan said, "is what is happening in the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings."
Duncan counted 34 states with declining rates of foreclosure.
The same four states have more than 19 percent of the nation's subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.
******
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/feature2.html
The high-rise and mid-rise condo markets continue to weaken as demand has softened and supply continues to increase - a problem that will worsen as more and more projects come on line in the next year, analysts said. Given the current pace of sales in the resale market, several years of inventory remain.
Those who already closed on their condos with the intention of flipping them aren't finding the buyers they expected. The rental pool for the high-end units is shallow, and the rent owners can charge is limited. That could lead to defaults in the high-rise market.
"I think a lot of folks bought intending to sell. They never thought to live in it or buy it to rent," Restrepo said.
"I hear from condo owners every single day. They bought it to flip it and they can't sell it," added Eric Smith, owner of Colorado-based Corporate Housing By Owner, which works with condo owners who lease their units for short-term corporate housing.
******
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/realty.html
Las Vegas Realtor Eric Young prides himself on being a numbers guy, and when it when comes to the local housing market, the numbers paint an awful picture...
Young, who tracks average sales prices by square footage, reports homes of up to 1,250 square are 7.5 percent off their peak; homes of 1,250 to 1,499 square feet are off 8.5 percent; homes 1,500 to 1,749 are off 8.9 percent; homes 1,750 to 1,999 are off 9.6 percent; homes 2,000 to 2,249 are off 7.7 percent; and homes 2,250 to 2,449 are off 8.9 percent.
In the last six weeks, the average home prices are down 2.6 to 3.5 percent, Young said. The GLVAR is expected to release its statistics for August by Monday at the latest.
The price per square foot that many homes are selling for today is the same as it was in early 2004 when the market was still appreciating, he said.
"It is far worse than the numbers are showing," said Young, echoing what a few others have been saying about statistics on the housing market. "If you start to dig into the numbers, the research shows the prices for the same home are declining greater than the averages are showing."
******
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sun_lasvegas0909sep09,0,1389227,full.story
"Houses were really cheap. Loans were really easy," said Lewis, who moved from California. "These were investors who didn't ever live here. Now, they're totally walking away."
Under pressure to respond, lawmakers are struggling to fashion relief for strapped homeowners while avoiding an undeserved bailout for quick-buck artists caught in the same squeeze. Even as President Bush in a Rose Garden ceremony Aug. 31 proposed aid for those threatened with losing their homes, he promised the government's role will be "limited."
Yet, if Las Vegas is any indication, sorting out the sympathetic hardship cases from those who gambled and lost could prove impossible. While the term "investor" brings to mind Warren Buffett, Vanguard or Fidelity, most of the real estate sharpies here were small-timers. The typical speculator bought "one-sies and two-sies," before finally "getting caught with their pants down," said Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas real estate firm Residential Resources.
Those who failed to cash out ahead of the bust have left owner-occupants such as Lewis stranded in a lonely landscape. Almost half of the 30,000 homes listed for sale in the Las Vegas metropolitan area stand vacant, said Nason, making it that much tougher to sell the rest.
"It's kind of a downward spiral," he said. "In the next year or two, it could get a heckuva lot worse.".........
The Mortgage Bankers Association, reporting last week on the rise in delinquencies and foreclosures, cited the higher risk of so-called investor loans made to buyers with no plans to live in the properties they purchased.
Nevada had more of those loans than any other state, and almost one-third of them were at least 90 days past due as of June 30, compared with 13 percent nationwide.
******
http://www.lvrj.com/business/9660427.html
Southern Nevada's economy, dragged down by the slumping housing industry, posted another month of modest performance.
New and existing home sales dropped 40 percent and new home permits are off by 45 percent, contributing to a 0.11 percent decline in the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators.......
"My contention is that the lack of white-collar jobs and relatively high housing costs would eventually slow down the migration, but without good data, it's hard to know for sure. Affordable housing was one of the big draws and now that's pretty much gone, for now."
******
http://www.lvrj.com/business/9638272.html
"What continues to drive the national numbers," Duncan said, "is what is happening in the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings."
Duncan counted 34 states with declining rates of foreclosure.
The same four states have more than 19 percent of the nation's subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.
******
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/feature2.html
The high-rise and mid-rise condo markets continue to weaken as demand has softened and supply continues to increase - a problem that will worsen as more and more projects come on line in the next year, analysts said. Given the current pace of sales in the resale market, several years of inventory remain.
Those who already closed on their condos with the intention of flipping them aren't finding the buyers they expected. The rental pool for the high-end units is shallow, and the rent owners can charge is limited. That could lead to defaults in the high-rise market.
"I think a lot of folks bought intending to sell. They never thought to live in it or buy it to rent," Restrepo said.
"I hear from condo owners every single day. They bought it to flip it and they can't sell it," added Eric Smith, owner of Colorado-based Corporate Housing By Owner, which works with condo owners who lease their units for short-term corporate housing.
******
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/realty.html
Las Vegas Realtor Eric Young prides himself on being a numbers guy, and when it when comes to the local housing market, the numbers paint an awful picture...
Young, who tracks average sales prices by square footage, reports homes of up to 1,250 square are 7.5 percent off their peak; homes of 1,250 to 1,499 square feet are off 8.5 percent; homes 1,500 to 1,749 are off 8.9 percent; homes 1,750 to 1,999 are off 9.6 percent; homes 2,000 to 2,249 are off 7.7 percent; and homes 2,250 to 2,449 are off 8.9 percent.
In the last six weeks, the average home prices are down 2.6 to 3.5 percent, Young said. The GLVAR is expected to release its statistics for August by Monday at the latest.
The price per square foot that many homes are selling for today is the same as it was in early 2004 when the market was still appreciating, he said.
"It is far worse than the numbers are showing," said Young, echoing what a few others have been saying about statistics on the housing market. "If you start to dig into the numbers, the research shows the prices for the same home are declining greater than the averages are showing."
******
http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sun_lasvegas0909sep09,0,1389227,full.story
"Houses were really cheap. Loans were really easy," said Lewis, who moved from California. "These were investors who didn't ever live here. Now, they're totally walking away."
Under pressure to respond, lawmakers are struggling to fashion relief for strapped homeowners while avoiding an undeserved bailout for quick-buck artists caught in the same squeeze. Even as President Bush in a Rose Garden ceremony Aug. 31 proposed aid for those threatened with losing their homes, he promised the government's role will be "limited."
Yet, if Las Vegas is any indication, sorting out the sympathetic hardship cases from those who gambled and lost could prove impossible. While the term "investor" brings to mind Warren Buffett, Vanguard or Fidelity, most of the real estate sharpies here were small-timers. The typical speculator bought "one-sies and two-sies," before finally "getting caught with their pants down," said Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas real estate firm Residential Resources.
Those who failed to cash out ahead of the bust have left owner-occupants such as Lewis stranded in a lonely landscape. Almost half of the 30,000 homes listed for sale in the Las Vegas metropolitan area stand vacant, said Nason, making it that much tougher to sell the rest.
"It's kind of a downward spiral," he said. "In the next year or two, it could get a heckuva lot worse.".........
The Mortgage Bankers Association, reporting last week on the rise in delinquencies and foreclosures, cited the higher risk of so-called investor loans made to buyers with no plans to live in the properties they purchased.
Nevada had more of those loans than any other state, and almost one-third of them were at least 90 days past due as of June 30, compared with 13 percent nationwide.
Saturday, August 18, 2007
California Bay Area New-home sales dive 1/3 in June
Even the Bay Area of California, supposedly erosion proof, is getting a clue.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/17/BUC3RK0EM.DTL
,
New-home sales dive 1/3 in June
Economist says price drop will bring back demand
Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, August 17, 2007
"Prices went way ahead of themselves relative to the incomes of the consumer, and price increases could only be maintained with exotic financing," Krueger said. "Once that went away, you had a significant erosion of demand."
Statewide, the picture is similar.
Ultimately, though, steeper price reductions may be the answer.
"How does demand come back? When prices come down," Krueger said. "For the consumer, that potentially could be good - it could alleviate some of the affordability problems we suffer from so much in the Bay Area."
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/08/17/BUC3RK0EM.DTL
,
New-home sales dive 1/3 in June
Economist says price drop will bring back demand
Kelly Zito, Chronicle Staff Writer
Friday, August 17, 2007
"Prices went way ahead of themselves relative to the incomes of the consumer, and price increases could only be maintained with exotic financing," Krueger said. "Once that went away, you had a significant erosion of demand."
Statewide, the picture is similar.
Ultimately, though, steeper price reductions may be the answer.
"How does demand come back? When prices come down," Krueger said. "For the consumer, that potentially could be good - it could alleviate some of the affordability problems we suffer from so much in the Bay Area."
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