House Of Cards: The Mortgage Mess

Here is the link to the 60 minutes transcript and video. It four pages long, but worth reading. The last time I looked there were over 20 pages of comments also:

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml#

Southern California Pasadena LA Times Reporter Renter

Three pages long, but an interesting read:

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shortsell20jan20,0,1815515.story?coll=la-home-center

How we cashed in before the housing crash

Friends thought he was nuts when a Times reporter sold his home and started to rent in 2005. But for him, the warning signs were just too hard to miss.

By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer January 20, 2008

Our friends said we were crazy. Relatives asked whether we were in financial trouble. But in April 2005, my wife and I bailed out of the American dream. We sold our two-bedroom Pasadena condominium and became renters again.

We got nearly three times what we had paid for the place nine years earlier. It seemed to us like a staggering profit -- and a sign that the market had been pumped up beyond reason.

The Deflation Time Bomb

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/whitney5.html

The Deflation Time Bomb
by Mike Whitney


Is there anyone who still does not understand that talk of ‘inflation’ by officialdom is just a red herring intended to distract us from the far more dangerous dragon of deflation?
~ Mike Shedlock, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis

We are to about see how much George Bush really believes the “supply side” mumbo-jumbo he’s been spouting for the last seven years.

WaMu accused of appraisal fraud

For those who think the banks were innocent bystanders and deserve to be bailed out:

http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/real_estate/wamu_lawsuit.moneymag/?postversion=2008011712

NEW YORK (Money) -- A former real estate appraiser for Washington Mutual is suing the bank, claiming she was blacklisted last year for providing a housing market forecast that was too gloomy.

Jeniffer Wertz, who is seeking unspecified damages, says WaMu stopped accepting her appraisals in mid-2007 a month after she reported that her local housing market in California was "declining."

Recent Articles on Arizona and Nevada Housing

Haven't had much time to keep up with the news and post, but here's some current articles on Arizona and Nevada housing issues:

Phoenix and the mortgage "relief" deal:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1207biz-foreclosures1207.html

Arizona is likely in a recession, a top University of Arizona economist said Friday:
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/70935.php

"Perfect Storm", UA economists with Arizona and US predictions:
http://uanews.org/node/17237

Biggest house price drop yet - Flagstaff news:
http://www.azdailysun.com/articles/2007/12/09/news/20071209_front%20page_17.txt

Foreclosures and Las Vegas:
http://lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=7462802

Las Vegas home builders cut staff (even the infamous Rhodes is listed):
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/12/07/realdev.html

Las Vegas builder sells 92 home subdivision as rental community:
http://www.globest.com/news/1050_1050/lasvegas/166570-1.html

U.S.Real Estate:How it affects your financial future

Here is an interesting YouTube video, there are several more by the same people listed on the right side of the page.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5kNJgLwD3Y&feature=related

Home Builder Woes Spell More Trouble

Current U.S. housing decline will be worst since Depression, says Ken Rosen.

Video......

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={44C53817-F5F3-403A-9262-7D907DE58687}

Tucson - Builders call for relief on local home- impact fees

By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 11.15.2007

Home builders are working to roll back or delay some Tucson-area impact fees to help the new-home industry weather its slump.

The Southern Arizona Home Builders Association has been asking local governments to allow builders to postpone paying impact fees until after houses are sold rather than when construction permits are issued. The organization also is working to delay and temporarily reduce a new impact fee in Marana.

http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/211719

More on San Diego Housing Prices

Think home-price slide is over? The worst appears yet to come

UNION-TRIBUNE
November 4, 2007

After more than a year's worth of the Great American Mortgage Crisis, some real estate professionals still think the law of supply and demand will kick in to prevent home prices in San Diego from dropping too low.

But people often forget that the economic concept of “demand” also includes “ability” – i.e., ability to pay. As lenders tighten their standards on mortgages – standards that never should have gotten as lax as they were in the past few years – fewer San Diegans will have the ability to buy homes at their current prices.

The median family income in San Diego County is $69,400, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That puts us slightly below the median family income of $73,700 in Madison, Wis.; $71,400 in Denver; $72,600 in Norwich, Conn.; or $72,800 in Worcester, Mass. – to cite some examples from HUD's database.

Although we make less money than the people in those cities, we pay more than twice as much for our housing.

In San Diego, the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the second quarter was $614,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compare that with $223,500 in Madison, $255,200 in Denver, $276,600 in Norwich and $278,900 in Worcester.

According to the Census Bureau, we are the 42nd-most-expensive county in the nation for median housing costs for owner-occupied units. But we are 142nd on the list of highest-paying metropolitan areas.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

Now That Housing Has Soured, Renters Are Glad They Didn't Buy

by Jane Hodges Thursday, November 1, 2007

With the housing-market slowdown, tightening mortgage-lending standards and rising home foreclosures, renters are more easily answering the question: "Why rent when you can own?" Such a question was common during the housing boom, when homeowners, happy with the gains their homes were making -- at least on paper -- would urge non-property-owner friends to join the party.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103796/Now-That-Housing-Has-Soured,-Renters-Are-Glad-They-Didn’t-Buy;_ylt=Aj2Wv4omaWX98Fa2B599fhC7YWsA

Coyote Springs

This is an interesting Q&A with the developer of Coyote Springs, a huge subdivision north of Las Vegas.

http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html

Arizona Housing Links

October 21, 2007
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune

http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085

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New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007

When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.

In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can't compete with builders' rock-bottom prices.

Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.

http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396

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Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM

Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.

Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.

Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona's mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn't otherwise afford the rising home prices.

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html

Tucson - Analyst: Housing slowdown will linger until 2010

http://www.azstarnet.com/business/206856

Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007

A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.

In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.

"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.

More California Housing

http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_7175582?nclick_check=1

Big winners, losers at auction of new Manteca homes
THOSE WHO GOT HOUSES ARE ECSTATIC, PAYING FAR LESS THAN CURRENT OWNERS
By Julia Prodis SulekMercury News

When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.

"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."

Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.

These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.
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http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/A_NEWS/710160320/-1/A_BIZ

Stockton agent offering foreclosure bus tours

By Bruce Spence
Record Staff Writer
October 16, 2007 6:00 AM

STOCKTON - It's not a magic bus, just a vividly marked one - REPO HOME TOUR.COM - that real estate agent Cesar Dias hopes will work some magic for him in a bleak home-sales market.

California Housing Articles

Some of these articles are on Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The closest counties to Mohave in both distance and weather. They are usually the first to fall in Cali bubbles and usually in the group that is hardest hit with declines.

http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_dataquick17.3e070b0.html

Inland housing sales plummet

12:23 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By LESLIE BERKMAN The Press-Enterprise

Housing sales fell at a record rate and home prices declined by double digits last month in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
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http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071017-9999-1n17housing.html


Housing slump persists

Credit crunch fuels drop in sales, prices in 6-county region
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
October 17, 2007

Home sales throughout Southern California plunged last month to their lowest levels in more than a decade, with prices falling in most areas as well, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
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http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_7198530

Region home sales lowest in 2 decades
Difficulties getting jumbo loans called major factor in downturn
By Michael Rappaport Staff Writer

Blame it on jumbo.
No, not the 1962 Doris Day/Jimmy Durante movie about a lovable elephant.
These jumbos are the mortgages required when a home loan exceeds federal lending limits, and they're a drag on the California housing market.
September home sales in the Southland were at their lowest level in more than 20 years, DataQuick Information Services reported Tuesday, and the difficulty in getting jumbo mortgages was a big factor.

Actually, the sales total of 12,455 homes in the region was the lowest for any month, edging the 12,459 sales in February 1995.

The biggest price drops came in San Bernardino County, off 11 percent to $325,000, and Riverside County, off 10.8 percent to $375,500.

"Things are clearly getting worse," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics. "It's going to remain terrible for some time."
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http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_7198220

Lenders that repossessed property slashing prices
BY GREGORY J. WILCOX and RICK COCA, Staff Writers
Article Last Updated: 10/17/2007 08:51:31 AM PDT

Looking to bottom feed in this depressed real estate market?

Try finding a foreclosure because you might snap it up for about 20 percent or more under its recent market value.

Take a foreclosed home in Winnekta on the market for $404,900. The asking price is 24 percent lower than what the former owner paid in June of 2006, according to Realtor Steve Smallson.

70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
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http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-homes17oct17,1,6588480,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&ctrack=1&cset=true

Southland home sales and prices plummet

Southland purchases in September fall nearly 50% from a year earlier. Prices drop overall, but L.A. County's rise 1.2%.

By Peter Y. Hong and Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers October 17, 2007

Home sales in Southern California plummeted in September to a two-decade low, and a rash of grim housing-market assessments Tuesday suggested the worst is yet to come."We're on our way down and still picking up speed," said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles-based economist who four years ago warned that the pace of housing price gains in the region couldn't be sustained.

Garden Grove real estate broker Patrick Schwier, who specializes in apartment buildings, said he had sold 70% fewer buildings this year compared with the same period in 2006, and recently saw one sale fall through when the potential buyer's loan application was rejected.

Schwier said he saw two more years of falling sales and prices.

"Prices were too inflated when credit was easier," he said, and now home prices, though they've been slipping, still "don't make sense. And they will drop until they make sense."
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http://www.ocregister.com/money/price-percent-down-1894419-last-sales

Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Home prices fall, but many still can't buy
Orange County median falls below $600,000, but agents still have trouble moving inventory.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register

The median price of an Orange County home fell 9.5 percent from the year before, dropping to $570,000. It is the first month in 2 ½ years that the median price – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – has dropped below $600,000.

That price was down $75,000, or nearly 12 percent, from the peak price of $645,000 reached in June. In the last down cycle, the drop from the peak to bottom was 16.3 percent from July 1991 to January 1996, according to DataQuick.

House prices expected to fall until 2009

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HousePricesExpectedToFallUntil2009.aspx

The continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will suppress housing prices at least through the end of next year, say officials with the biggest mortgage financiers.

U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation's biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.

Officials with government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and CEOs from two major mortgage banks told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention that the continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will prevent any quick price rebound.

"It's going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover," said David Lowman, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase's Global Mortgage unit. "There's too much inventory already in the marketplace."

Las Vegas Articles

http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7217324

Jonathan Humbert, Reporter
Nevada Faces Budget Shortfall
Oct 16, 2007 03:36 PM MST

Nevada could be facing another budget shortfall which means state leaders are facing tough decisions about what services and programs to cut.

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http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571036.html

Oct. 16, 2007
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEES DEALS
By MARGARET ANN MIILLE REVIEW-JOURNAL

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http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571071.html

Oct. 16, 2007
To sell homes in down market, use strategy, observers say
By JENNIFER ROBISON REVIEW-JOURNAL

A foundering market with falling prices and more than 30,000 homes for sale in Southern Nevada. It's enough to paralyze any prospective home buyer. So how do home sellers convince skittish consumers that their place is a safe bet and that now is a solid time to buy? Realtors say pushing consumers off the fence requires a combination of emotional appeals and economic inducements. And for some sellers, the best answer is to sit out the market altogether.

Phoenix Housing Articles

Here are some recent housing articles on Phoenix:

http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1016biz-AZresale16-ON.html

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http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1015biz-economy1016.html

Housing worries generally optimistic Valley experts

Betty BeardThe Arizona Republic Oct. 15, 2007 05:48 PM

"Brutal" and "perfect storm" are some of the descriptions local economists now use to describe economic conditions in Maricopa County.

While things could get worse before they get better, the economists said the area also has a diversified economy and continued job growth that will keep the climate from getting overly gloomy.

Governments are already noticing that spending is slowing down because of sales tax revenues at the state and county levels, said speakers addressing the Maricopa County Economic Forum Monday.

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http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=591487

Ashton Woods Hit Hard By $10.6 Million Quarterly Loss
Atlanta-based builder is focusing on cutting costs and generating new orders through sales incentives.

During the quarter, the average sales price of this builder's homes fell 7.9 percent, to $270,000, with the biggest dip - 33.3 percent - in the Phoenix market, to $305,000. "Phoenix is one of the more depressed [housing] markets, with a tremendous price problem," Krobat told BUILDER during an interview earlier this month.

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http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/99713

Gilbert Esplanade sold

David Woodfill, Tribune

Developers of the planned Gilbert Esplanade have sold the property, becoming the second builder of a major retail center to announce an ownership change in less than a month.

Officials with Phoenix-based De Rito Partners said they decided to sell the site at Gilbert Road and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway to an Ohio-based firm when it was unable to fill an anchor space.........

Dawn McLaren, a research economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in Tempe, said retail developers are feeling the new realities in the housing market. “Things have changed in Arizona, she said”

October 12, 2007 4:25 PM ET
Home builders likely to see further downgrades

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The downgrade of three home builders into junk territory by Moody's Investors Service may only be the start of a rash of cuts of high grade builders into high yield, which may present funding challenges for some companies.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp , Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.

http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071012&ID=7623404

Housing Industry Outlook

I'm only putting a link because the realtor that wrote this piece does not allow postings on other sites. It is interesting because this is written by Mike Morgan who owns a real estate company in Florida and is an analyst and consultant also:

http://www.treasure-coast.us/weeklyupdate09-23-07