U.S. Fed's impact on home prices in doubt

By David Leonhardt
Published: September 19, 2007

NEW YORK: The U.S. Federal Reserve has sent the stock market soaring. So can it stop the decline in home prices, too?
Don't count on it. And that is bad news for the global economy, which heavily depends on the U.S. consumer.

From the late 1960s until 2000, the price of the typical American home and the income of the typical family moved almost in lockstep. House prices rose a bit more quickly than incomes during the occasional real estate boom, but would always settle down again. In 2000, the median home cost about $130,000, roughly three times the typical household income - almost precisely the ratio that had held since the '60s.

Then came a real estate boom unlike any before it. By last year, this ratio of prices to incomes had suddenly shot up to four and a half. For it to return to its old level, home prices would have to fall by an almost unthinkable one-third, and probably more in California, Florida and the Northeast.

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