Las Vegas Housing Market Bits and Pieces

Some bits and pieces on the Las Vegas housing market. A lot of these articles say the same things I've been saying regarding prices and speculation:

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http://www.lvrj.com/business/9660427.html

Southern Nevada's economy, dragged down by the slumping housing industry, posted another month of modest performance.
New and existing home sales dropped 40 percent and new home permits are off by 45 percent, contributing to a 0.11 percent decline in the Southern Nevada Index of Leading Economic Indicators.......

"My contention is that the lack of white-collar jobs and relatively high housing costs would eventually slow down the migration, but without good data, it's hard to know for sure. Affordable housing was one of the big draws and now that's pretty much gone, for now."

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http://www.lvrj.com/business/9638272.html

"What continues to drive the national numbers," Duncan said, "is what is happening in the states of California, Florida, Nevada and Arizona. Were it not for the increases in foreclosure starts in those four states, we would have seen a nationwide drop in the rate of foreclosure filings."

Duncan counted 34 states with declining rates of foreclosure.

The same four states have more than 19 percent of the nation's subprime adjustable-rate mortgages.

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http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/feature2.html

The high-rise and mid-rise condo markets continue to weaken as demand has softened and supply continues to increase - a problem that will worsen as more and more projects come on line in the next year, analysts said. Given the current pace of sales in the resale market, several years of inventory remain.

Those who already closed on their condos with the intention of flipping them aren't finding the buyers they expected. The rental pool for the high-end units is shallow, and the rent owners can charge is limited. That could lead to defaults in the high-rise market.

"I think a lot of folks bought intending to sell. They never thought to live in it or buy it to rent," Restrepo said.

"I hear from condo owners every single day. They bought it to flip it and they can't sell it," added Eric Smith, owner of Colorado-based Corporate Housing By Owner, which works with condo owners who lease their units for short-term corporate housing.

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http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/09/07/realty.html

Las Vegas Realtor Eric Young prides himself on being a numbers guy, and when it when comes to the local housing market, the numbers paint an awful picture...

Young, who tracks average sales prices by square footage, reports homes of up to 1,250 square are 7.5 percent off their peak; homes of 1,250 to 1,499 square feet are off 8.5 percent; homes 1,500 to 1,749 are off 8.9 percent; homes 1,750 to 1,999 are off 9.6 percent; homes 2,000 to 2,249 are off 7.7 percent; and homes 2,250 to 2,449 are off 8.9 percent.

In the last six weeks, the average home prices are down 2.6 to 3.5 percent, Young said. The GLVAR is expected to release its statistics for August by Monday at the latest.

The price per square foot that many homes are selling for today is the same as it was in early 2004 when the market was still appreciating, he said.

"It is far worse than the numbers are showing," said Young, echoing what a few others have been saying about statistics on the housing market. "If you start to dig into the numbers, the research shows the prices for the same home are declining greater than the averages are showing."

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http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/chi-sun_lasvegas0909sep09,0,1389227,full.story

"Houses were really cheap. Loans were really easy," said Lewis, who moved from California. "These were investors who didn't ever live here. Now, they're totally walking away."

Under pressure to respond, lawmakers are struggling to fashion relief for strapped homeowners while avoiding an undeserved bailout for quick-buck artists caught in the same squeeze. Even as President Bush in a Rose Garden ceremony Aug. 31 proposed aid for those threatened with losing their homes, he promised the government's role will be "limited."

Yet, if Las Vegas is any indication, sorting out the sympathetic hardship cases from those who gambled and lost could prove impossible. While the term "investor" brings to mind Warren Buffett, Vanguard or Fidelity, most of the real estate sharpies here were small-timers. The typical speculator bought "one-sies and two-sies," before finally "getting caught with their pants down," said Frank Nason, president of Las Vegas real estate firm Residential Resources.

Those who failed to cash out ahead of the bust have left owner-occupants such as Lewis stranded in a lonely landscape. Almost half of the 30,000 homes listed for sale in the Las Vegas metropolitan area stand vacant, said Nason, making it that much tougher to sell the rest.

"It's kind of a downward spiral," he said. "In the next year or two, it could get a heckuva lot worse.".........

The Mortgage Bankers Association, reporting last week on the rise in delinquencies and foreclosures, cited the higher risk of so-called investor loans made to buyers with no plans to live in the properties they purchased.

Nevada had more of those loans than any other state, and almost one-third of them were at least 90 days past due as of June 30, compared with 13 percent nationwide.