Fires aren't expected to dampen home sales

But experts see decline ahead in harder hit areas

By Lori Weisberg and Roger ShowleySTAFF WRITERS
October 27, 2007

San Diego County's already fragile real estate market should feel little ill effect from the week's widespread wildfires, but some of the harder hit communities can expect a dip in home sales in the coming months, housing experts say.

While housing sales countywide remain at record lows amid sharply rising foreclosures, it's unlikely that the loss of at least 1,400 homes, as high as that figure sounds, will dampen a market that logs thousands of sales each month, said analyst John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems.

“We've done literally dozens of studies on fires and earthquakes and floods and hurricanes, looking at their impacts on the market, and the trend is always that these events don't mean much except in the short term in deferring some sales activity,” said Karevoll, who was evacuated from his home in Running Springs near Lake Arrowhead, where hundreds of homes were destroyed.

In the fire-damaged areas, “I expect much lower sales counts for the next two to six months, and then there will be a period of time where the market reverts to what it was doing before but plays some catch-up.”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071027/news_1b27real.html