But experts see decline ahead in harder hit areas
By Lori Weisberg and Roger ShowleySTAFF WRITERS
October 27, 2007
San Diego County's already fragile real estate market should feel little ill effect from the week's widespread wildfires, but some of the harder hit communities can expect a dip in home sales in the coming months, housing experts say.
While housing sales countywide remain at record lows amid sharply rising foreclosures, it's unlikely that the loss of at least 1,400 homes, as high as that figure sounds, will dampen a market that logs thousands of sales each month, said analyst John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems.
“We've done literally dozens of studies on fires and earthquakes and floods and hurricanes, looking at their impacts on the market, and the trend is always that these events don't mean much except in the short term in deferring some sales activity,” said Karevoll, who was evacuated from his home in Running Springs near Lake Arrowhead, where hundreds of homes were destroyed.
In the fire-damaged areas, “I expect much lower sales counts for the next two to six months, and then there will be a period of time where the market reverts to what it was doing before but plays some catch-up.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071027/news_1b27real.html
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Friday, October 26, 2007
Foreclosures
I think I'll play with the foreclosure subject today. If you are planning on purchasing in Kingman or Mohave County, you need to do as much research as you can and foreclosures are an important part of the current market. I'll address the importance of this further down. I'll also add a couple of permanent links to our link section for foreclosure sites.
The Countrywide link also includes several other links on the left side of the page that go to other bank reo sites. All of the bank sites include addresses of the properties.
The foreclosure.com site is a pay site and does not include addresses without a subscription. However, the preforeclosures include a owner name and street name and using those the address can be looked up on the Mohave county tax accessor site.
The bank owned properties have added another "just pick a number" pricing level to an already "just pick a number" owner pricing level. If you don't do the research yourself, you are liable to buy a home that is as much as 100k more than another nearly identical house. I have found that the realtors don't seem to be following the foreclosure market and I would recommend doing your own research and not just blindly accepting your realtors word.
This is difficult to do with the information that the Mohave MLS supplies. Without addresses you are at the mercy of what the realtors choose to tell you about, unless you do your own research. You cannot just see a property on realtor.com and see that it is in your area of interest and contact the realtor.
I am lucky that I have access to a site that supplies the addresses for mls properties. It is a site that my realtor subscribes her buyers to. You can find out more by contacting either Sandy or Cecelia, whose sites are in the links on the right hand side. Both are very good at their jobs, not pushy sales types. They are just out to help you find and purchase a home without pressure. Sandy will help you find a home anywhere in Mohave County and will send you an email with each new listing that meets your criteria. Cecelia is a mortgage banker who can help you with a mortgage and also sends emails out with current interest and lending news.
The Mission Hills Estates subdivision is one that I can use to point out why knowledge is very important in this market. This subdivision was built in the spring of 2006. The houses are on 4000'+ lots. They are mostly 1869'+/- houses with some 1538'+/- floorplans. The original homes were priced from 239,000 to 299,000. A few of the smaller houses sold at the beginning. The builders apparently then rented out many of the remaining homes and the majority of the subdivision is still either rented or vacant. A California investor also purchased 5 of the larger homes for 289,000 in the summer of 2006.
Now fast forward to 2007. At least three of the smaller homes went into foreclosure and are now bank owned. Another two of the larger homes also went into foreclosure. All five of the investor homes were put on the market for 199,900 (90,000) less than he paid. None of them were sold even at the lower price and they have gone into foreclosure. Now here is where the bizarre pricing comes in.
Even though there were 1869' homes for sale for 199,900, one of the 1538' bank owned properties was originally priced by the bank at 229,000. They have since lowered it to 193,900. And as the 1869' homes go through foreclosure and become bank owned, the banks are listing them at a higher price than the owner listing.
There are six homes for sale as of today's listings. Two of the 1538' homes are 193,9000 and 195,500. The four 1869' homes are priced at 197,500, 199,900, 219,900, and 225,900. These houses are all the same, the two less expensive ones have never been lived in. The two more expensive ones may have been rentals.
Then we have the Rhodes Villas, another 69 home subdivision originally built and sold in late 2005. Nearly all were purchased by speculators and as they were completed were put back on the market for resale at an inflated price. A few were flipped for a profit in early 2006, but most owners ended up renting the homes out. By late 2006/early 2007, several were again put on the market. Some were priced at what they had paid, some were priced higher and some were priced lower. No real rhyme or reason to the "just pick a number" pricing.
Now fast forward to 2007. One of the original models was sold originally for 364,275 in 2005. The model was priced at about 140,000 above what the base prices were. The home went into foreclosure and is now bank owned. The bank has priced it at 199,000, it has 2192' and as of yet it has not sold. It has been listed for about 1.5 months. The second model home is still apparently owned by the original owner and may be rented. The third and final model home is owned by Rhodes and shows an original price of 299,824. It is currently on the market for 309,724 and has 1866'. The original non-model homes sold for 181, 825 to 255,875, depending on the upgrades added. The majority sold for around 181-205. A few are currently on the market, some priced at less than they paid in 2005.
There are many houses on the market priced at less than the current owners paid in 2005/2006. A house on our block is bank owned and priced at only $900. more than the last owner paid in 12/2004 and it has been on the market since August 8th.
As more and more foreclosures come on the market, opportunities to purchase homes for a reasonable amount should increase. The builder discounts and foreclosures should force the resale home prices down. Builders are continuing to grade and build homes, even as hundreds sit unsold on the market. Many home prices here doubled and tripled between late 2004 and early 2005 for no fundamental based reason. Lot prices went up as much as 20 times during the same period. The prices increased mainly due to a credit bubble and a frenzy of speculative buying. Prices are falling across the country and despite what the realtors tell you, it is not "different" in Mohave County.
If you are going to buy, do your own research. Do not depend on the advise of someone who's pay check depends on your purchase. Make sure you can afford the payments and don't depend on appreciation in the near future.
The Countrywide link also includes several other links on the left side of the page that go to other bank reo sites. All of the bank sites include addresses of the properties.
The foreclosure.com site is a pay site and does not include addresses without a subscription. However, the preforeclosures include a owner name and street name and using those the address can be looked up on the Mohave county tax accessor site.
The bank owned properties have added another "just pick a number" pricing level to an already "just pick a number" owner pricing level. If you don't do the research yourself, you are liable to buy a home that is as much as 100k more than another nearly identical house. I have found that the realtors don't seem to be following the foreclosure market and I would recommend doing your own research and not just blindly accepting your realtors word.
This is difficult to do with the information that the Mohave MLS supplies. Without addresses you are at the mercy of what the realtors choose to tell you about, unless you do your own research. You cannot just see a property on realtor.com and see that it is in your area of interest and contact the realtor.
I am lucky that I have access to a site that supplies the addresses for mls properties. It is a site that my realtor subscribes her buyers to. You can find out more by contacting either Sandy or Cecelia, whose sites are in the links on the right hand side. Both are very good at their jobs, not pushy sales types. They are just out to help you find and purchase a home without pressure. Sandy will help you find a home anywhere in Mohave County and will send you an email with each new listing that meets your criteria. Cecelia is a mortgage banker who can help you with a mortgage and also sends emails out with current interest and lending news.
The Mission Hills Estates subdivision is one that I can use to point out why knowledge is very important in this market. This subdivision was built in the spring of 2006. The houses are on 4000'+ lots. They are mostly 1869'+/- houses with some 1538'+/- floorplans. The original homes were priced from 239,000 to 299,000. A few of the smaller houses sold at the beginning. The builders apparently then rented out many of the remaining homes and the majority of the subdivision is still either rented or vacant. A California investor also purchased 5 of the larger homes for 289,000 in the summer of 2006.
Now fast forward to 2007. At least three of the smaller homes went into foreclosure and are now bank owned. Another two of the larger homes also went into foreclosure. All five of the investor homes were put on the market for 199,900 (90,000) less than he paid. None of them were sold even at the lower price and they have gone into foreclosure. Now here is where the bizarre pricing comes in.
Even though there were 1869' homes for sale for 199,900, one of the 1538' bank owned properties was originally priced by the bank at 229,000. They have since lowered it to 193,900. And as the 1869' homes go through foreclosure and become bank owned, the banks are listing them at a higher price than the owner listing.
There are six homes for sale as of today's listings. Two of the 1538' homes are 193,9000 and 195,500. The four 1869' homes are priced at 197,500, 199,900, 219,900, and 225,900. These houses are all the same, the two less expensive ones have never been lived in. The two more expensive ones may have been rentals.
Then we have the Rhodes Villas, another 69 home subdivision originally built and sold in late 2005. Nearly all were purchased by speculators and as they were completed were put back on the market for resale at an inflated price. A few were flipped for a profit in early 2006, but most owners ended up renting the homes out. By late 2006/early 2007, several were again put on the market. Some were priced at what they had paid, some were priced higher and some were priced lower. No real rhyme or reason to the "just pick a number" pricing.
Now fast forward to 2007. One of the original models was sold originally for 364,275 in 2005. The model was priced at about 140,000 above what the base prices were. The home went into foreclosure and is now bank owned. The bank has priced it at 199,000, it has 2192' and as of yet it has not sold. It has been listed for about 1.5 months. The second model home is still apparently owned by the original owner and may be rented. The third and final model home is owned by Rhodes and shows an original price of 299,824. It is currently on the market for 309,724 and has 1866'. The original non-model homes sold for 181, 825 to 255,875, depending on the upgrades added. The majority sold for around 181-205. A few are currently on the market, some priced at less than they paid in 2005.
There are many houses on the market priced at less than the current owners paid in 2005/2006. A house on our block is bank owned and priced at only $900. more than the last owner paid in 12/2004 and it has been on the market since August 8th.
As more and more foreclosures come on the market, opportunities to purchase homes for a reasonable amount should increase. The builder discounts and foreclosures should force the resale home prices down. Builders are continuing to grade and build homes, even as hundreds sit unsold on the market. Many home prices here doubled and tripled between late 2004 and early 2005 for no fundamental based reason. Lot prices went up as much as 20 times during the same period. The prices increased mainly due to a credit bubble and a frenzy of speculative buying. Prices are falling across the country and despite what the realtors tell you, it is not "different" in Mohave County.
If you are going to buy, do your own research. Do not depend on the advise of someone who's pay check depends on your purchase. Make sure you can afford the payments and don't depend on appreciation in the near future.
Drought Monitor
I've added a link on the right side of the page to an Arizona Drought Monitor. You can also get to other states from that page by clicking on the "return to US drought monitor" on the left top corner of the Arizona page.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Phoenix Flippers In Trouble
This blogger site has losses on specific houses shown. Each house shows the previous sales price and the current listing price. The blogger who recently started this site has been running a Sacramento Calif. Flipper loss site for years and decided to put Phoenix info on a new site.
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Coyote Springs
This is an interesting Q&A with the developer of Coyote Springs, a huge subdivision north of Las Vegas.
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html
Arizona Housing Links
October 21, 2007
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085
**********
New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007
When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.
In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can't compete with builders' rock-bottom prices.
Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396
**********
Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM
Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.
Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.
Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona's mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn't otherwise afford the rising home prices.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085
**********
New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007
When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.
In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can't compete with builders' rock-bottom prices.
Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396
**********
Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM
Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.
Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.
Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona's mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn't otherwise afford the rising home prices.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Monthly ARM Reset Schedule
This chart shows that the majority of the loan resets don't happen until Jan-June 2008.
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/resetbigchart.gif
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/resetbigchart.gif
Monday, October 22, 2007
Its Credit and its Crunchy
A funny video from the UK regarding the Northern Rock Bank run and the mortgage securitization business.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br8mOmH9frE
And another British video on subprime loans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VeNwG3xms&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br8mOmH9frE
And another British video on subprime loans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VeNwG3xms&NR=1
Friday, October 19, 2007
Tucson - Analyst: Housing slowdown will linger until 2010
http://www.azstarnet.com/business/206856
Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007
A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.
In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.
"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.
Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007
A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.
In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.
"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Hillary! Uncensored - Banned By The Media
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019
The Roughcut Trailer for- Hillary!Uncensored-the Documentary Using Exclusive Home Videos of Hillary to Expose the Illegalities that Elected Hillary to the Senate and the Obstructions of Justice That Keep Her There-
The Roughcut Trailer for- Hillary!Uncensored-the Documentary Using Exclusive Home Videos of Hillary to Expose the Illegalities that Elected Hillary to the Senate and the Obstructions of Justice That Keep Her There-
More California Housing
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_7175582?nclick_check=1
Big winners, losers at auction of new Manteca homes
THOSE WHO GOT HOUSES ARE ECSTATIC, PAYING FAR LESS THAN CURRENT OWNERS
By Julia Prodis SulekMercury News
When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."
Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.
These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.
**********
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/A_NEWS/710160320/-1/A_BIZ
Stockton agent offering foreclosure bus tours
By Bruce Spence
Record Staff Writer
October 16, 2007 6:00 AM
STOCKTON - It's not a magic bus, just a vividly marked one - REPO HOME TOUR.COM - that real estate agent Cesar Dias hopes will work some magic for him in a bleak home-sales market.
Big winners, losers at auction of new Manteca homes
THOSE WHO GOT HOUSES ARE ECSTATIC, PAYING FAR LESS THAN CURRENT OWNERS
By Julia Prodis SulekMercury News
When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."
Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.
These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.
**********
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/A_NEWS/710160320/-1/A_BIZ
Stockton agent offering foreclosure bus tours
By Bruce Spence
Record Staff Writer
October 16, 2007 6:00 AM
STOCKTON - It's not a magic bus, just a vividly marked one - REPO HOME TOUR.COM - that real estate agent Cesar Dias hopes will work some magic for him in a bleak home-sales market.
California Housing Articles
Some of these articles are on Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The closest counties to Mohave in both distance and weather. They are usually the first to fall in Cali bubbles and usually in the group that is hardest hit with declines.
http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_dataquick17.3e070b0.html
Inland housing sales plummet
12:23 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By LESLIE BERKMAN The Press-Enterprise
Housing sales fell at a record rate and home prices declined by double digits last month in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
**********
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071017-9999-1n17housing.html
Housing slump persists
Credit crunch fuels drop in sales, prices in 6-county region
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
October 17, 2007
Home sales throughout Southern California plunged last month to their lowest levels in more than a decade, with prices falling in most areas as well, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
**********
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_7198530
Region home sales lowest in 2 decades
Difficulties getting jumbo loans called major factor in downturn
By Michael Rappaport Staff Writer
Blame it on jumbo.
No, not the 1962 Doris Day/Jimmy Durante movie about a lovable elephant.
These jumbos are the mortgages required when a home loan exceeds federal lending limits, and they're a drag on the California housing market.
September home sales in the Southland were at their lowest level in more than 20 years, DataQuick Information Services reported Tuesday, and the difficulty in getting jumbo mortgages was a big factor.
Actually, the sales total of 12,455 homes in the region was the lowest for any month, edging the 12,459 sales in February 1995.
The biggest price drops came in San Bernardino County, off 11 percent to $325,000, and Riverside County, off 10.8 percent to $375,500.
"Things are clearly getting worse," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics. "It's going to remain terrible for some time."
**********
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_7198220
Lenders that repossessed property slashing prices
BY GREGORY J. WILCOX and RICK COCA, Staff Writers
Article Last Updated: 10/17/2007 08:51:31 AM PDT
Looking to bottom feed in this depressed real estate market?
Try finding a foreclosure because you might snap it up for about 20 percent or more under its recent market value.
Take a foreclosed home in Winnekta on the market for $404,900. The asking price is 24 percent lower than what the former owner paid in June of 2006, according to Realtor Steve Smallson.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
**********
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-homes17oct17,1,6588480,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&ctrack=1&cset=true
Southland home sales and prices plummet
Southland purchases in September fall nearly 50% from a year earlier. Prices drop overall, but L.A. County's rise 1.2%.
By Peter Y. Hong and Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers October 17, 2007
Home sales in Southern California plummeted in September to a two-decade low, and a rash of grim housing-market assessments Tuesday suggested the worst is yet to come."We're on our way down and still picking up speed," said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles-based economist who four years ago warned that the pace of housing price gains in the region couldn't be sustained.
Garden Grove real estate broker Patrick Schwier, who specializes in apartment buildings, said he had sold 70% fewer buildings this year compared with the same period in 2006, and recently saw one sale fall through when the potential buyer's loan application was rejected.
Schwier said he saw two more years of falling sales and prices.
"Prices were too inflated when credit was easier," he said, and now home prices, though they've been slipping, still "don't make sense. And they will drop until they make sense."
**********
http://www.ocregister.com/money/price-percent-down-1894419-last-sales
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Home prices fall, but many still can't buy
Orange County median falls below $600,000, but agents still have trouble moving inventory.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
The median price of an Orange County home fell 9.5 percent from the year before, dropping to $570,000. It is the first month in 2 ½ years that the median price – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – has dropped below $600,000.
That price was down $75,000, or nearly 12 percent, from the peak price of $645,000 reached in June. In the last down cycle, the drop from the peak to bottom was 16.3 percent from July 1991 to January 1996, according to DataQuick.
http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_dataquick17.3e070b0.html
Inland housing sales plummet
12:23 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By LESLIE BERKMAN The Press-Enterprise
Housing sales fell at a record rate and home prices declined by double digits last month in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
**********
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071017-9999-1n17housing.html
Housing slump persists
Credit crunch fuels drop in sales, prices in 6-county region
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
October 17, 2007
Home sales throughout Southern California plunged last month to their lowest levels in more than a decade, with prices falling in most areas as well, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
**********
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_7198530
Region home sales lowest in 2 decades
Difficulties getting jumbo loans called major factor in downturn
By Michael Rappaport Staff Writer
Blame it on jumbo.
No, not the 1962 Doris Day/Jimmy Durante movie about a lovable elephant.
These jumbos are the mortgages required when a home loan exceeds federal lending limits, and they're a drag on the California housing market.
September home sales in the Southland were at their lowest level in more than 20 years, DataQuick Information Services reported Tuesday, and the difficulty in getting jumbo mortgages was a big factor.
Actually, the sales total of 12,455 homes in the region was the lowest for any month, edging the 12,459 sales in February 1995.
The biggest price drops came in San Bernardino County, off 11 percent to $325,000, and Riverside County, off 10.8 percent to $375,500.
"Things are clearly getting worse," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics. "It's going to remain terrible for some time."
**********
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_7198220
Lenders that repossessed property slashing prices
BY GREGORY J. WILCOX and RICK COCA, Staff Writers
Article Last Updated: 10/17/2007 08:51:31 AM PDT
Looking to bottom feed in this depressed real estate market?
Try finding a foreclosure because you might snap it up for about 20 percent or more under its recent market value.
Take a foreclosed home in Winnekta on the market for $404,900. The asking price is 24 percent lower than what the former owner paid in June of 2006, according to Realtor Steve Smallson.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
**********
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-homes17oct17,1,6588480,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&ctrack=1&cset=true
Southland home sales and prices plummet
Southland purchases in September fall nearly 50% from a year earlier. Prices drop overall, but L.A. County's rise 1.2%.
By Peter Y. Hong and Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers October 17, 2007
Home sales in Southern California plummeted in September to a two-decade low, and a rash of grim housing-market assessments Tuesday suggested the worst is yet to come."We're on our way down and still picking up speed," said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles-based economist who four years ago warned that the pace of housing price gains in the region couldn't be sustained.
Garden Grove real estate broker Patrick Schwier, who specializes in apartment buildings, said he had sold 70% fewer buildings this year compared with the same period in 2006, and recently saw one sale fall through when the potential buyer's loan application was rejected.
Schwier said he saw two more years of falling sales and prices.
"Prices were too inflated when credit was easier," he said, and now home prices, though they've been slipping, still "don't make sense. And they will drop until they make sense."
**********
http://www.ocregister.com/money/price-percent-down-1894419-last-sales
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Home prices fall, but many still can't buy
Orange County median falls below $600,000, but agents still have trouble moving inventory.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
The median price of an Orange County home fell 9.5 percent from the year before, dropping to $570,000. It is the first month in 2 ½ years that the median price – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – has dropped below $600,000.
That price was down $75,000, or nearly 12 percent, from the peak price of $645,000 reached in June. In the last down cycle, the drop from the peak to bottom was 16.3 percent from July 1991 to January 1996, according to DataQuick.
The Latte Era Grinds Down
http://www.newsweek.com/id/43345
Average Americans were living like the Riches, thanks to easy credit and the real-estate bubble. Now they're trading down instead of trading up.
By Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK
Oct 22, 2007 Issue
Average Americans were living like the Riches, thanks to easy credit and the real-estate bubble. Now they're trading down instead of trading up.
By Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK
Oct 22, 2007 Issue
House prices expected to fall until 2009
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HousePricesExpectedToFallUntil2009.aspx
The continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will suppress housing prices at least through the end of next year, say officials with the biggest mortgage financiers.
U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation's biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.
Officials with government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and CEOs from two major mortgage banks told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention that the continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will prevent any quick price rebound.
"It's going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover," said David Lowman, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase's Global Mortgage unit. "There's too much inventory already in the marketplace."
The continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will suppress housing prices at least through the end of next year, say officials with the biggest mortgage financiers.
U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation's biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.
Officials with government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and CEOs from two major mortgage banks told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention that the continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will prevent any quick price rebound.
"It's going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover," said David Lowman, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase's Global Mortgage unit. "There's too much inventory already in the marketplace."
Las Vegas Articles
http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7217324
Jonathan Humbert, Reporter
Nevada Faces Budget Shortfall
Oct 16, 2007 03:36 PM MST
Nevada could be facing another budget shortfall which means state leaders are facing tough decisions about what services and programs to cut.
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571036.html
Oct. 16, 2007
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEES DEALS
By MARGARET ANN MIILLE REVIEW-JOURNAL
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571071.html
Oct. 16, 2007
To sell homes in down market, use strategy, observers say
By JENNIFER ROBISON REVIEW-JOURNAL
A foundering market with falling prices and more than 30,000 homes for sale in Southern Nevada. It's enough to paralyze any prospective home buyer. So how do home sellers convince skittish consumers that their place is a safe bet and that now is a solid time to buy? Realtors say pushing consumers off the fence requires a combination of emotional appeals and economic inducements. And for some sellers, the best answer is to sit out the market altogether.
Jonathan Humbert, Reporter
Nevada Faces Budget Shortfall
Oct 16, 2007 03:36 PM MST
Nevada could be facing another budget shortfall which means state leaders are facing tough decisions about what services and programs to cut.
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571036.html
Oct. 16, 2007
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEES DEALS
By MARGARET ANN MIILLE REVIEW-JOURNAL
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571071.html
Oct. 16, 2007
To sell homes in down market, use strategy, observers say
By JENNIFER ROBISON REVIEW-JOURNAL
A foundering market with falling prices and more than 30,000 homes for sale in Southern Nevada. It's enough to paralyze any prospective home buyer. So how do home sellers convince skittish consumers that their place is a safe bet and that now is a solid time to buy? Realtors say pushing consumers off the fence requires a combination of emotional appeals and economic inducements. And for some sellers, the best answer is to sit out the market altogether.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Phoenix Housing Articles
Here are some recent housing articles on Phoenix:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1016biz-AZresale16-ON.html
**************
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1015biz-economy1016.html
Housing worries generally optimistic Valley experts
Betty BeardThe Arizona Republic Oct. 15, 2007 05:48 PM
"Brutal" and "perfect storm" are some of the descriptions local economists now use to describe economic conditions in Maricopa County.
While things could get worse before they get better, the economists said the area also has a diversified economy and continued job growth that will keep the climate from getting overly gloomy.
Governments are already noticing that spending is slowing down because of sales tax revenues at the state and county levels, said speakers addressing the Maricopa County Economic Forum Monday.
*************
http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=591487
Ashton Woods Hit Hard By $10.6 Million Quarterly Loss
Atlanta-based builder is focusing on cutting costs and generating new orders through sales incentives.
During the quarter, the average sales price of this builder's homes fell 7.9 percent, to $270,000, with the biggest dip - 33.3 percent - in the Phoenix market, to $305,000. "Phoenix is one of the more depressed [housing] markets, with a tremendous price problem," Krobat told BUILDER during an interview earlier this month.
**************
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/99713
Gilbert Esplanade sold
David Woodfill, Tribune
Developers of the planned Gilbert Esplanade have sold the property, becoming the second builder of a major retail center to announce an ownership change in less than a month.
Officials with Phoenix-based De Rito Partners said they decided to sell the site at Gilbert Road and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway to an Ohio-based firm when it was unable to fill an anchor space.........
Dawn McLaren, a research economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in Tempe, said retail developers are feeling the new realities in the housing market. “Things have changed in Arizona, she said”
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1016biz-AZresale16-ON.html
**************
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1015biz-economy1016.html
Housing worries generally optimistic Valley experts
Betty BeardThe Arizona Republic Oct. 15, 2007 05:48 PM
"Brutal" and "perfect storm" are some of the descriptions local economists now use to describe economic conditions in Maricopa County.
While things could get worse before they get better, the economists said the area also has a diversified economy and continued job growth that will keep the climate from getting overly gloomy.
Governments are already noticing that spending is slowing down because of sales tax revenues at the state and county levels, said speakers addressing the Maricopa County Economic Forum Monday.
*************
http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=591487
Ashton Woods Hit Hard By $10.6 Million Quarterly Loss
Atlanta-based builder is focusing on cutting costs and generating new orders through sales incentives.
During the quarter, the average sales price of this builder's homes fell 7.9 percent, to $270,000, with the biggest dip - 33.3 percent - in the Phoenix market, to $305,000. "Phoenix is one of the more depressed [housing] markets, with a tremendous price problem," Krobat told BUILDER during an interview earlier this month.
**************
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/99713
Gilbert Esplanade sold
David Woodfill, Tribune
Developers of the planned Gilbert Esplanade have sold the property, becoming the second builder of a major retail center to announce an ownership change in less than a month.
Officials with Phoenix-based De Rito Partners said they decided to sell the site at Gilbert Road and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway to an Ohio-based firm when it was unable to fill an anchor space.........
Dawn McLaren, a research economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in Tempe, said retail developers are feeling the new realities in the housing market. “Things have changed in Arizona, she said”
Monday, October 15, 2007
October 12, 2007 4:25 PM ET
Home builders likely to see further downgrades
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The downgrade of three home builders into junk territory by Moody's Investors Service may only be the start of a rash of cuts of high grade builders into high yield, which may present funding challenges for some companies.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp , Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071012&ID=7623404
Home builders likely to see further downgrades
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The downgrade of three home builders into junk territory by Moody's Investors Service may only be the start of a rash of cuts of high grade builders into high yield, which may present funding challenges for some companies.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp , Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071012&ID=7623404
Thursday, October 11, 2007
The United States of Subprime
Data Show Bad LoansPermeate the Nation;Pain Could Last Years
By RICK BROOKS and CONSTANCE MITCHELL FORD
October 11, 2007; As America's mortgage markets began unraveling this year, economists seeking explanations pointed to "subprime" mortgages issued to low-income, minority and urban borrowers. But an analysis of more than 130 million home loans made over the past decade reveals that risky mortgages were made in nearly every corner of the nation, from small towns in the middle of nowhere to inner cities to affluent suburbs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
By RICK BROOKS and CONSTANCE MITCHELL FORD
October 11, 2007; As America's mortgage markets began unraveling this year, economists seeking explanations pointed to "subprime" mortgages issued to low-income, minority and urban borrowers. But an analysis of more than 130 million home loans made over the past decade reveals that risky mortgages were made in nearly every corner of the nation, from small towns in the middle of nowhere to inner cities to affluent suburbs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Saturday, October 6, 2007
The Fed Rate Cut Aftermath
Mr Practical Oct 04, 2007 9:45 am
As stocks climb to new highs, let’s look at what the Fed’s rate cuts have really done. 30 year mortgage rates before the cut... 6.375%. 30-year mortgage rates after the cut... 6.625%. Stocks’ reaction... priceless.
Forget about 5-year ARMs and interest-only loans. Those are priced completely differently now and are bones in the sand. A mortgage broker at a big bank tells me business is down significantly with no signs of picking up.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/banks-Fed+rate+cut-mortgage-ARMs-speculating/index/a/14350
As stocks climb to new highs, let’s look at what the Fed’s rate cuts have really done. 30 year mortgage rates before the cut... 6.375%. 30-year mortgage rates after the cut... 6.625%. Stocks’ reaction... priceless.
Forget about 5-year ARMs and interest-only loans. Those are priced completely differently now and are bones in the sand. A mortgage broker at a big bank tells me business is down significantly with no signs of picking up.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/banks-Fed+rate+cut-mortgage-ARMs-speculating/index/a/14350
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Robert Kuttner Testimony to Committee of Financial Services
This is a testimony before the US House of Representatives on the parallels of banking practices of the 1920's and current times by Robert Kuttner.
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/testimony_-_kuttner.pdf
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/testimony_-_kuttner.pdf
Monday, October 1, 2007
Housing Industry Outlook
I'm only putting a link because the realtor that wrote this piece does not allow postings on other sites. It is interesting because this is written by Mike Morgan who owns a real estate company in Florida and is an analyst and consultant also:
http://www.treasure-coast.us/weeklyupdate09-23-07
http://www.treasure-coast.us/weeklyupdate09-23-07
Rating the real cost of inflation
The fedaral government says that inflation is under control at 2% to 3% a year — with prices up 15 percent since 2002 — but some key prices have risen much faster, and critics charge that the government is undercounting the pace of inflation
By Dean Calbreath STAFF WRITER
September 30, 2007
If you're like the average American, when you fill your car up at the gas pump, you're paying 84 percent more than you were in 2000, for an average price rise of 12 percent per year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070930/news_1b30inflate.html
By Dean Calbreath STAFF WRITER
September 30, 2007
If you're like the average American, when you fill your car up at the gas pump, you're paying 84 percent more than you were in 2000, for an average price rise of 12 percent per year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070930/news_1b30inflate.html
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