Here is the link to the 60 minutes transcript and video. It four pages long, but worth reading. The last time I looked there were over 20 pages of comments also:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2008/01/25/60minutes/main3752515.shtml#
Monday, January 28, 2008
Countrywide Soft Market County Index
Kingman just hit the top of a list and not a good one, we're a category 5. This is a list countrywide is using for lending criteria. The categories mean for loans:
For Countrywide Purchase Loans:
Soft Market Category 4-5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.
For Countrywide Home Equity Loans:
Soft Market Category 5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 10%
Soft Market Category 4 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.
Here is the complete chart:
https://www.cwbc.com/ContentManaged/files/SoftMarkets.pdf
For Countrywide Purchase Loans:
Soft Market Category 4-5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.
For Countrywide Home Equity Loans:
Soft Market Category 5 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 10%
Soft Market Category 4 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5%
Soft Market Category 1-3 loans: Maximum financing will be reduced by 5% if the appraisal or appraisal review indicates any of the following: Declining Market, Oversupply, Marketing time over 6 months.
Here is the complete chart:
https://www.cwbc.com/ContentManaged/files/SoftMarkets.pdf
Sunday, January 20, 2008
Southern California Pasadena LA Times Reporter Renter
Three pages long, but an interesting read:
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shortsell20jan20,0,1815515.story?coll=la-home-center
How we cashed in before the housing crash
Friends thought he was nuts when a Times reporter sold his home and started to rent in 2005. But for him, the warning signs were just too hard to miss.
By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer January 20, 2008
Our friends said we were crazy. Relatives asked whether we were in financial trouble. But in April 2005, my wife and I bailed out of the American dream. We sold our two-bedroom Pasadena condominium and became renters again.
We got nearly three times what we had paid for the place nine years earlier. It seemed to us like a staggering profit -- and a sign that the market had been pumped up beyond reason.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-shortsell20jan20,0,1815515.story?coll=la-home-center
How we cashed in before the housing crash
Friends thought he was nuts when a Times reporter sold his home and started to rent in 2005. But for him, the warning signs were just too hard to miss.
By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer January 20, 2008
Our friends said we were crazy. Relatives asked whether we were in financial trouble. But in April 2005, my wife and I bailed out of the American dream. We sold our two-bedroom Pasadena condominium and became renters again.
We got nearly three times what we had paid for the place nine years earlier. It seemed to us like a staggering profit -- and a sign that the market had been pumped up beyond reason.
The Deflation Time Bomb
http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig8/whitney5.html
The Deflation Time Bomb
by Mike Whitney
Is there anyone who still does not understand that talk of ‘inflation’ by officialdom is just a red herring intended to distract us from the far more dangerous dragon of deflation?
~ Mike Shedlock, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
We are to about see how much George Bush really believes the “supply side” mumbo-jumbo he’s been spouting for the last seven years.
The Deflation Time Bomb
by Mike Whitney
Is there anyone who still does not understand that talk of ‘inflation’ by officialdom is just a red herring intended to distract us from the far more dangerous dragon of deflation?
~ Mike Shedlock, Mish’s Global Economic Trend Analysis
We are to about see how much George Bush really believes the “supply side” mumbo-jumbo he’s been spouting for the last seven years.
Friday, January 18, 2008
WaMu accused of appraisal fraud
For those who think the banks were innocent bystanders and deserve to be bailed out:
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/real_estate/wamu_lawsuit.moneymag/?postversion=2008011712
NEW YORK (Money) -- A former real estate appraiser for Washington Mutual is suing the bank, claiming she was blacklisted last year for providing a housing market forecast that was too gloomy.
Jeniffer Wertz, who is seeking unspecified damages, says WaMu stopped accepting her appraisals in mid-2007 a month after she reported that her local housing market in California was "declining."
http://money.cnn.com/2008/01/17/real_estate/wamu_lawsuit.moneymag/?postversion=2008011712
NEW YORK (Money) -- A former real estate appraiser for Washington Mutual is suing the bank, claiming she was blacklisted last year for providing a housing market forecast that was too gloomy.
Jeniffer Wertz, who is seeking unspecified damages, says WaMu stopped accepting her appraisals in mid-2007 a month after she reported that her local housing market in California was "declining."
Thursday, January 17, 2008
SoCal Housing Articles
For the Kingman realtors that think Kingman houses will gain value and/or stay at the current values, perhaps they should check out the SoCal market. Many areas of Socal are already less expensive than Mohave County and have further to fall.
http://www.dailybulletin.com/ci_7981286
I.E. home sales tumble
By Michael Rappaport, Staff Writer
Article Created: 01/15/2008 06:57:15 PM PST
December usually isn't a bad month for home sales, but December 2007 was one for the books.
According to Tuesday's monthly report from DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin.
Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.
The median price of a home in Southern California has dropped from $490,000 to $425,000 in the last year, with every one of the six counties in the region down by more than 10 percent.
San Bernardino County's off 14.9percent to $315,000
*******
http://www.pe.com/business/local/stories/PE_News_Local_B_dataquick16.3537580.html
Region's housing market stays in 'midst of turbulence'
10:00 PM PST on Tuesday, January 15, 2008
By JACK KATZANEKThe Press-Enterprise
Home prices in Inland Southern California continued to fall in December, and sales numbers in Riverside and San Bernardino counties are down about 50 percent from where they were a year ago, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The record highs were $432,000 in Riverside County and $380,000 in San Bernardino County, both set about a year ago. Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.
And this statement from the article says it all:
Esmael Adibi, chief economist for Chapman University, said mortgage rates are looking favorable right now, but prices won't start to rebound until the buyers come back to the table. Right now, Adibi said, most are not earning enough money to qualify.
And that is the problem, prices got out of control everywhere and it wasn't a problem because no one was required to qualify for the loans. Now that banks are starting to act responsibly, prices will have to drop to a price that is affordable to buyers.
http://www.dailybulletin.com/ci_7981286
I.E. home sales tumble
By Michael Rappaport, Staff Writer
Article Created: 01/15/2008 06:57:15 PM PST
December usually isn't a bad month for home sales, but December 2007 was one for the books.
According to Tuesday's monthly report from DataQuick Information Systems of La Jolla, only 13,240 new and resale homes and condominiums were sold in Southern California last month, the worst December on record by a wide margin.
Nearly 24 percent fewer homes sold last month than in December 1990, the previous worst.
The median price of a home in Southern California has dropped from $490,000 to $425,000 in the last year, with every one of the six counties in the region down by more than 10 percent.
San Bernardino County's off 14.9percent to $315,000
*******
http://www.pe.com/business/local/stories/PE_News_Local_B_dataquick16.3537580.html
Region's housing market stays in 'midst of turbulence'
10:00 PM PST on Tuesday, January 15, 2008
By JACK KATZANEKThe Press-Enterprise
Home prices in Inland Southern California continued to fall in December, and sales numbers in Riverside and San Bernardino counties are down about 50 percent from where they were a year ago, DataQuick Information Systems reported.
The record highs were $432,000 in Riverside County and $380,000 in San Bernardino County, both set about a year ago. Five years ago, the median home in the Inland area sold for about $200,000.
And this statement from the article says it all:
Esmael Adibi, chief economist for Chapman University, said mortgage rates are looking favorable right now, but prices won't start to rebound until the buyers come back to the table. Right now, Adibi said, most are not earning enough money to qualify.
And that is the problem, prices got out of control everywhere and it wasn't a problem because no one was required to qualify for the loans. Now that banks are starting to act responsibly, prices will have to drop to a price that is affordable to buyers.
Saturday, December 15, 2007
Overview of impact fees
Lake Havasu is considering impact fees:
Overview of impact fees
Proposed taxes put city in the middle of the pack
By John RudolfWednesday, December 12, 2007 9:51 PM MST
To builders and developers, it is a burdensome tax that discourages growth. To cities struggling to maintain services and infrastructure as populations swell, it represents a critical tool for generating revenue. But with impact fees now officially on the City Council's agenda, both sides will have plenty of time to debate over the next several months.
http://www.havasunews.com/articles/2007/12/12/news/doc4760b935c6199640416552.txt
Overview of impact fees
Proposed taxes put city in the middle of the pack
By John RudolfWednesday, December 12, 2007 9:51 PM MST
To builders and developers, it is a burdensome tax that discourages growth. To cities struggling to maintain services and infrastructure as populations swell, it represents a critical tool for generating revenue. But with impact fees now officially on the City Council's agenda, both sides will have plenty of time to debate over the next several months.
http://www.havasunews.com/articles/2007/12/12/news/doc4760b935c6199640416552.txt
Arizona Housing Links
From the Havasu News-Herald (lots of reader comments at the end also):
Building slump seeping into economy
By Tony RaapTuesday, December 11, 2007 10:32 PM MST
The already grim housing market suffered yet another setback Tuesday as officials announced that home construction plunged even further last month, sinking to its lowest level in nearly three decades.
http://www.havasunews.com/articles/2007/12/11/news/doc475f71cf1bc91773801525.txt
*****************
From Mesa "City's sales tax revenue continues to slip" (reader comments on this one also):
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1213mr-tax1214.html
*****************
From Phoenix "SE Valley housing market decline continues" ( lots of reader comments here):
http://www.azcentral.com/community/gilbert/articles/1212ev-resale1213.html
*****************
This bubble blogger from Phoenix has several posts showing current listings with previous purchase prices and the loss the owners are taking. The latest is dated today, more links are on the right side of the page:
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
Building slump seeping into economy
By Tony RaapTuesday, December 11, 2007 10:32 PM MST
The already grim housing market suffered yet another setback Tuesday as officials announced that home construction plunged even further last month, sinking to its lowest level in nearly three decades.
http://www.havasunews.com/articles/2007/12/11/news/doc475f71cf1bc91773801525.txt
*****************
From Mesa "City's sales tax revenue continues to slip" (reader comments on this one also):
http://www.azcentral.com/news/articles/1213mr-tax1214.html
*****************
From Phoenix "SE Valley housing market decline continues" ( lots of reader comments here):
http://www.azcentral.com/community/gilbert/articles/1212ev-resale1213.html
*****************
This bubble blogger from Phoenix has several posts showing current listings with previous purchase prices and the loss the owners are taking. The latest is dated today, more links are on the right side of the page:
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
Tuesday, December 11, 2007
Recent Articles on Arizona and Nevada Housing
Haven't had much time to keep up with the news and post, but here's some current articles on Arizona and Nevada housing issues:
Phoenix and the mortgage "relief" deal:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1207biz-foreclosures1207.html
Arizona is likely in a recession, a top University of Arizona economist said Friday:
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/70935.php
"Perfect Storm", UA economists with Arizona and US predictions:
http://uanews.org/node/17237
Biggest house price drop yet - Flagstaff news:
http://www.azdailysun.com/articles/2007/12/09/news/20071209_front%20page_17.txt
Foreclosures and Las Vegas:
http://lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=7462802
Las Vegas home builders cut staff (even the infamous Rhodes is listed):
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/12/07/realdev.html
Las Vegas builder sells 92 home subdivision as rental community:
http://www.globest.com/news/1050_1050/lasvegas/166570-1.html
Phoenix and the mortgage "relief" deal:
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1207biz-foreclosures1207.html
Arizona is likely in a recession, a top University of Arizona economist said Friday:
http://www.tucsoncitizen.com/daily/local/70935.php
"Perfect Storm", UA economists with Arizona and US predictions:
http://uanews.org/node/17237
Biggest house price drop yet - Flagstaff news:
http://www.azdailysun.com/articles/2007/12/09/news/20071209_front%20page_17.txt
Foreclosures and Las Vegas:
http://lasvegasnow.com/Global/story.asp?S=7462802
Las Vegas home builders cut staff (even the infamous Rhodes is listed):
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/12/07/realdev.html
Las Vegas builder sells 92 home subdivision as rental community:
http://www.globest.com/news/1050_1050/lasvegas/166570-1.html
Tuesday, December 4, 2007
How low must housing prices go?
Commentary: Figure at least another 20% before families can afford to buy
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:23 p.m. EST Dec. 3, 2007
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Housing will revive when prices come down to the point where demand rises enough to reduce the huge supply of unsold homes now overhanging the market. That said, this point is a long way off.
Today, median home prices are 3.5 times the size of median annual family incomes. This may be down from the recent peak of 4.2 times incomes reached last year, but it's way above the 2.8 times that home prices averaged during 1984-2000, when lots of homes were bought, sold and built.
And if you think 2.8 is low, check out the early 1970s. That was when home prices were only 2.3 times median family incomes, and housing was selling like gangbusters.
To get prices back to 2.8 times family incomes would require a drop of 20% from today's levels - and this does not take into account interest rates and lending standards.
To equal the affordability of the early 1970s, prices would have to fall a whopping 38%.
Those who say such declines can't happen are ignoring how fast home prices rose in the first half of this decade. In most parts of the country, housing prices doubled during this five-year period while incomes went up only a fraction as much.
Sellers could always hold the line and wait for family incomes to rise. But this clearly won't happen overnight - and, besides, it's a buyer's market and no one wants to buy today knowing that prices might well be lower tomorrow.
After all, when it comes to housing prices, what matters most is not the cost of construction, nor what surrounding homes might be selling for.
Simply put, it's affordability.
And until they are more affordable, houses won't sell.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/irwin-kellner-how-low-must/story.aspx?guid=%7B501755BA-5015-43E7-B2A3-E2A3536ADF71%7D&dist=hplatest
By Dr. Irwin Kellner, MarketWatch
Last update: 11:23 p.m. EST Dec. 3, 2007
PORT WASHINGTON, N.Y. (MarketWatch) -- Housing will revive when prices come down to the point where demand rises enough to reduce the huge supply of unsold homes now overhanging the market. That said, this point is a long way off.
Today, median home prices are 3.5 times the size of median annual family incomes. This may be down from the recent peak of 4.2 times incomes reached last year, but it's way above the 2.8 times that home prices averaged during 1984-2000, when lots of homes were bought, sold and built.
And if you think 2.8 is low, check out the early 1970s. That was when home prices were only 2.3 times median family incomes, and housing was selling like gangbusters.
To get prices back to 2.8 times family incomes would require a drop of 20% from today's levels - and this does not take into account interest rates and lending standards.
To equal the affordability of the early 1970s, prices would have to fall a whopping 38%.
Those who say such declines can't happen are ignoring how fast home prices rose in the first half of this decade. In most parts of the country, housing prices doubled during this five-year period while incomes went up only a fraction as much.
Sellers could always hold the line and wait for family incomes to rise. But this clearly won't happen overnight - and, besides, it's a buyer's market and no one wants to buy today knowing that prices might well be lower tomorrow.
After all, when it comes to housing prices, what matters most is not the cost of construction, nor what surrounding homes might be selling for.
Simply put, it's affordability.
And until they are more affordable, houses won't sell.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/irwin-kellner-how-low-must/story.aspx?guid=%7B501755BA-5015-43E7-B2A3-E2A3536ADF71%7D&dist=hplatest
Analysts breakdown foreclosures for lawmakers
by Geoff Dornan, R-C Capitol Bureau December 4, 2007
The head of an independent Southern Nevada research firm told lawmakers Monday nearly 60 percent of homes in foreclosure there are not occupied by their owners.
That means they are either rentals or homes purchased by speculators during the housing boom of the past couple of years.
Jeremy Aguero, of Applied Analysis in Las Vegas, said of the nearly 30,000 unsold homes on the market, 42 percent are vacant and another 11 percent occupied by renters.
Duncan said Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida are in the same situation and the cause is a mix of over-development and speculative investment.
http://www.recordcourier.com/article/20071204/NEWS/71204004
The head of an independent Southern Nevada research firm told lawmakers Monday nearly 60 percent of homes in foreclosure there are not occupied by their owners.
That means they are either rentals or homes purchased by speculators during the housing boom of the past couple of years.
Jeremy Aguero, of Applied Analysis in Las Vegas, said of the nearly 30,000 unsold homes on the market, 42 percent are vacant and another 11 percent occupied by renters.
Duncan said Nevada, California, Arizona and Florida are in the same situation and the cause is a mix of over-development and speculative investment.
http://www.recordcourier.com/article/20071204/NEWS/71204004
Mortgage crisis tarnishes Las Vegas boomtown image
After years of robust growth, the housing market in Las Vegas has been beset with the highest foreclosure rate in the nation, as well as a drop in prices and declining sales. (Adam Tanner/Reuters)
By Susan Milligan
Globe Staff / December 2, 2007
HENDERSON, Nev. - In America's ultimate boomtown, the signs of economic trouble literally show up in the streets, with "for sale" sign after "for sale" sign stuck in the front yards of homeowners who lost their houses because they couldn't afford to pay their mortgages.
Las Vegas, a national symbol of growth and opportunity, now suffers the highest foreclosure rate in the country. Nearby Henderson - full of gated communities as well as moderately priced housing - now has more than 300 properties in foreclosure or preforeclosure and some streets have as many as six houses in the process of being sold because the owners couldn't keep up the payments.
The subprime mortgage crisis was caused when lenders gave often-risky loans to buyers who would not be approved for mortgages under normal standards, either because they had bad credit or lacked the financial records - such as proof of income - to get a standard mortgage.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/02/mortgage_crisis_tarnishes_las_vegas_boomtown_image/?page=1
By Susan Milligan
Globe Staff / December 2, 2007
HENDERSON, Nev. - In America's ultimate boomtown, the signs of economic trouble literally show up in the streets, with "for sale" sign after "for sale" sign stuck in the front yards of homeowners who lost their houses because they couldn't afford to pay their mortgages.
Las Vegas, a national symbol of growth and opportunity, now suffers the highest foreclosure rate in the country. Nearby Henderson - full of gated communities as well as moderately priced housing - now has more than 300 properties in foreclosure or preforeclosure and some streets have as many as six houses in the process of being sold because the owners couldn't keep up the payments.
The subprime mortgage crisis was caused when lenders gave often-risky loans to buyers who would not be approved for mortgages under normal standards, either because they had bad credit or lacked the financial records - such as proof of income - to get a standard mortgage.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2007/12/02/mortgage_crisis_tarnishes_las_vegas_boomtown_image/?page=1
First-time home buyers find opportunities
Misty Williams, Tribune
While the real estate downturn has devastated many households, it has also opened up opportunities for first-time home buyers and others to take advantage of more affordable prices and low interest rates.
Builders have knocked tens of thousands of dollars off the prices of new homes, especially in outlying areas, such as Maricopa and Queen Creek. A rising number of foreclosures and bank-repossessed properties also offer large discounts.
Mesa real estate agent Steffanie Countryman said she recently listed a bank-owned property in south Chandler for $469,000 — almost $200,000 less than what the former owner paid for it in 2006.
“(Prices) jumped up so quickly,” Countryman said. “It’s like anything else. You swing way up, you’re going to swing way down.”
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/103187
While the real estate downturn has devastated many households, it has also opened up opportunities for first-time home buyers and others to take advantage of more affordable prices and low interest rates.
Builders have knocked tens of thousands of dollars off the prices of new homes, especially in outlying areas, such as Maricopa and Queen Creek. A rising number of foreclosures and bank-repossessed properties also offer large discounts.
Mesa real estate agent Steffanie Countryman said she recently listed a bank-owned property in south Chandler for $469,000 — almost $200,000 less than what the former owner paid for it in 2006.
“(Prices) jumped up so quickly,” Countryman said. “It’s like anything else. You swing way up, you’re going to swing way down.”
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/103187
Monday, November 26, 2007
How a housing boom turned into a bust
Housing woes have domino effect
By Kathy Chu with Sharon Silke Carty, Greg Farrell, Barbara Hagenbaugh, Edward Iwata, Noelle Knox and Adam Shell
If you haven't yet felt the impact of the nation's credit crisis, just wait. Chances are, you won't have to wait long.
So far, the turmoil may feel a bit remote for average people: Failed mortgage lenders. Gargantuan write-downs by banks. Foreclosures for people who couldn't really afford the mortgages they got.
What about the rest of us? Are we in danger? No one knows for sure, but quite likely, yes.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-11-25-credit-crunch_N.htm
A good article from USA Today with lots of charts.
By Kathy Chu with Sharon Silke Carty, Greg Farrell, Barbara Hagenbaugh, Edward Iwata, Noelle Knox and Adam Shell
If you haven't yet felt the impact of the nation's credit crisis, just wait. Chances are, you won't have to wait long.
So far, the turmoil may feel a bit remote for average people: Failed mortgage lenders. Gargantuan write-downs by banks. Foreclosures for people who couldn't really afford the mortgages they got.
What about the rest of us? Are we in danger? No one knows for sure, but quite likely, yes.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-11-25-credit-crunch_N.htm
A good article from USA Today with lots of charts.
U.S.Real Estate:How it affects your financial future
Here is an interesting YouTube video, there are several more by the same people listed on the right side of the page.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5kNJgLwD3Y&feature=related
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5kNJgLwD3Y&feature=related
Tuesday, November 20, 2007
Home Builder Woes Spell More Trouble
Current U.S. housing decline will be worst since Depression, says Ken Rosen.
Video......
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={44C53817-F5F3-403A-9262-7D907DE58687}
Video......
http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={44C53817-F5F3-403A-9262-7D907DE58687}
Monday, November 19, 2007
Tucson - Builders call for relief on local home- impact fees
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 11.15.2007
Home builders are working to roll back or delay some Tucson-area impact fees to help the new-home industry weather its slump.
The Southern Arizona Home Builders Association has been asking local governments to allow builders to postpone paying impact fees until after houses are sold rather than when construction permits are issued. The organization also is working to delay and temporarily reduce a new impact fee in Marana.
http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/211719
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 11.15.2007
Home builders are working to roll back or delay some Tucson-area impact fees to help the new-home industry weather its slump.
The Southern Arizona Home Builders Association has been asking local governments to allow builders to postpone paying impact fees until after houses are sold rather than when construction permits are issued. The organization also is working to delay and temporarily reduce a new impact fee in Marana.
http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/211719
Saturday, November 17, 2007
Bearish mood in commercial sector
This is from the UK, but the article is about the US commercial real estate market.
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Published: November 13 2007 02:00 Last updated: November 13 2007 02:00
"In the US we've spent 15 years building the concept of securitisation into real estate," said Eric Schwartz, joint head of Deutsche Bank's commercial property arm. "I don't think anybody is prepared to believe that the events of the last three months have changed everything."
In spite of Wall Street's hopes, the signs at the moment are not good in commercial real estate, as fears rise that a flight from commercial mortgage backed securities could be pushing commercial real estate prices lower.
Investors are increasingly betting that the booming commercial real estate market is heading for a downturn. Yields on CMBS have soared to levels not seen since the late 1990s, indicating that they are seen as riskier.
In the third quarter, the average loan was 118 per cent of the property value, according to Moody's, which includes expectations of properties incomes over several years in their calculations. That level of leverage is "really kind of creepy" says Sally Gordon head of commercial property research at Moody's.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab0c89ca-918e-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Published: November 13 2007 02:00 Last updated: November 13 2007 02:00
"In the US we've spent 15 years building the concept of securitisation into real estate," said Eric Schwartz, joint head of Deutsche Bank's commercial property arm. "I don't think anybody is prepared to believe that the events of the last three months have changed everything."
In spite of Wall Street's hopes, the signs at the moment are not good in commercial real estate, as fears rise that a flight from commercial mortgage backed securities could be pushing commercial real estate prices lower.
Investors are increasingly betting that the booming commercial real estate market is heading for a downturn. Yields on CMBS have soared to levels not seen since the late 1990s, indicating that they are seen as riskier.
In the third quarter, the average loan was 118 per cent of the property value, according to Moody's, which includes expectations of properties incomes over several years in their calculations. That level of leverage is "really kind of creepy" says Sally Gordon head of commercial property research at Moody's.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab0c89ca-918e-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1
Friday, November 16, 2007
Why Would Anyone Want to Move To.....
Someone on the topix forum mentioned Kentucky and the low cost of housing and mild weather. I mentioned that retiree's would likely move to where ever they felt the cost of living was lowest and fit their wants.
One of the local realtors said "Who wants to retire and live in Kentucky? "
I have always said that not every retiree wants to live in a hot climate and I looked on a California city-data forum that was asking where people were going to move if they left California. Only two mentioned AZ and one of those said they had moved but they wanted to move back to Calif. Of the rest of the comments, Colorado stood out as one of the top destinations, which pretty much fits in with where people I know have moved or want to move to. Many also mentioned what they were looking for was...1)low cost of housing 2) small rural town 3) no need for extensive shopping etc. I clipped the "where we're going part" out of each of the individual posts.......Here it is:
We've been thinking about moving to San Antonio
We have found the cost of living in Tennessee
We are researching Arkansas
We are deciding between three towns in western WA
I'm staying put, right here in California
I have made the decision to leave CA and am moving to NE Arkansas
I just got back from my second scouting trip to Denver.
I have been looking at Oregon, WA, and Wisc. I like cold weather. I'm sick of the heat.
no reason for us to want to live back in California. Colorado itself is stunningly beautiful.
We moved two years ago from Chico to Arizona.
we are going to Kalispell mt.
We are heading for Gig Harbor Wa.
My daugher moved back to Tennessee
We sold that house after only a year and moved to Southern Utah
Be sure you understand how truly HOT it is in Vegas...we are usually a few degrees cooler in St George than Vegas and it is unbearable.
in reference to moving from CA to San Antonio, you wouldn't be alone. Californians are moving down here in DROVES.
We are looking at Northern Co, Loveland/Ft Collins area, also looking at Tulsa and possibly Boise, Idaho.
We moved from Sac a year ago to Portland, OR
I heard great things about Austin
I have considered Austin Texas myself....I may end up in Texas, Tennesee or somewhere similar.
born and raised in Cali, We are moving out next summer to Colorado,
You'll find very few if any people who have regretted their move from California to Colorado
We left to move to Southern Florida
I moved back to my home state (Michigan)
we are actually considering moving BACK to California.....AZ has been affordable
Nope, not moving.
One of the local realtors said "Who wants to retire and live in Kentucky? "
I have always said that not every retiree wants to live in a hot climate and I looked on a California city-data forum that was asking where people were going to move if they left California. Only two mentioned AZ and one of those said they had moved but they wanted to move back to Calif. Of the rest of the comments, Colorado stood out as one of the top destinations, which pretty much fits in with where people I know have moved or want to move to. Many also mentioned what they were looking for was...1)low cost of housing 2) small rural town 3) no need for extensive shopping etc. I clipped the "where we're going part" out of each of the individual posts.......Here it is:
We've been thinking about moving to San Antonio
We have found the cost of living in Tennessee
We are researching Arkansas
We are deciding between three towns in western WA
I'm staying put, right here in California
I have made the decision to leave CA and am moving to NE Arkansas
I just got back from my second scouting trip to Denver.
I have been looking at Oregon, WA, and Wisc. I like cold weather. I'm sick of the heat.
no reason for us to want to live back in California. Colorado itself is stunningly beautiful.
We moved two years ago from Chico to Arizona.
we are going to Kalispell mt.
We are heading for Gig Harbor Wa.
My daugher moved back to Tennessee
We sold that house after only a year and moved to Southern Utah
Be sure you understand how truly HOT it is in Vegas...we are usually a few degrees cooler in St George than Vegas and it is unbearable.
in reference to moving from CA to San Antonio, you wouldn't be alone. Californians are moving down here in DROVES.
We are looking at Northern Co, Loveland/Ft Collins area, also looking at Tulsa and possibly Boise, Idaho.
We moved from Sac a year ago to Portland, OR
I heard great things about Austin
I have considered Austin Texas myself....I may end up in Texas, Tennesee or somewhere similar.
born and raised in Cali, We are moving out next summer to Colorado,
You'll find very few if any people who have regretted their move from California to Colorado
We left to move to Southern Florida
I moved back to my home state (Michigan)
we are actually considering moving BACK to California.....AZ has been affordable
Nope, not moving.
Thursday, November 15, 2007
Victorville California has More Foreclosures Than Homes For Sale
More valley homes in foreclosure than for sale
TATIANA PROPHET
November 14, 2007 - 9:38AM
VICTORVILLE — There are more homes headed for foreclosure — or already on the auction block — than there are for sale, according to listing service RealtyTrac. In Victorville, 1,366 homes are in pre-foreclosure, indicating the owner has received a notice of default. There are 314 homes on the auction block and 659 owned by the bank as of Monday. By contrast, 442 homes were listed for sale in Victorville, 46 by owner, 303 by realty company and 93 as new homes.
http://www.vvdailypress.com/news/homes_3693___article.html/sale_victorville.html
TATIANA PROPHET
November 14, 2007 - 9:38AM
VICTORVILLE — There are more homes headed for foreclosure — or already on the auction block — than there are for sale, according to listing service RealtyTrac. In Victorville, 1,366 homes are in pre-foreclosure, indicating the owner has received a notice of default. There are 314 homes on the auction block and 659 owned by the bank as of Monday. By contrast, 442 homes were listed for sale in Victorville, 46 by owner, 303 by realty company and 93 as new homes.
http://www.vvdailypress.com/news/homes_3693___article.html/sale_victorville.html
Third Quarter Foreclosure Activity
Here is Realty Trac 3rd quarter report showing the percentage of households in foreclosure. By state Nevada is 1st, California is 2nd and Florida is 3rd. Arizona is at 7th at one foreclosure for every 112 households (Nevada at #1 has one foreclosure per every 61 households).
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3567&accnt=64847
There is also a colored map showing which counties in each state have the most foreclosures. Mohave, Maricopa and Pinal appear to have the most in Arizona and of course Clark county is the highest in Nevada.
http://www.realtytrac.com/blog/photos/foreclosurepulse_photos/images/3397/original.aspx
I put this in the comments, but the link doesn't seem to show up. Here is the chart by metro area.
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3609&accnt=64847
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3567&accnt=64847
There is also a colored map showing which counties in each state have the most foreclosures. Mohave, Maricopa and Pinal appear to have the most in Arizona and of course Clark county is the highest in Nevada.
http://www.realtytrac.com/blog/photos/foreclosurepulse_photos/images/3397/original.aspx
I put this in the comments, but the link doesn't seem to show up. Here is the chart by metro area.
http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3609&accnt=64847
Monday, November 5, 2007
More on San Diego Housing Prices
Think home-price slide is over? The worst appears yet to come
UNION-TRIBUNE
November 4, 2007
After more than a year's worth of the Great American Mortgage Crisis, some real estate professionals still think the law of supply and demand will kick in to prevent home prices in San Diego from dropping too low.
But people often forget that the economic concept of “demand” also includes “ability” – i.e., ability to pay. As lenders tighten their standards on mortgages – standards that never should have gotten as lax as they were in the past few years – fewer San Diegans will have the ability to buy homes at their current prices.
The median family income in San Diego County is $69,400, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That puts us slightly below the median family income of $73,700 in Madison, Wis.; $71,400 in Denver; $72,600 in Norwich, Conn.; or $72,800 in Worcester, Mass. – to cite some examples from HUD's database.
Although we make less money than the people in those cities, we pay more than twice as much for our housing.
In San Diego, the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the second quarter was $614,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compare that with $223,500 in Madison, $255,200 in Denver, $276,600 in Norwich and $278,900 in Worcester.
According to the Census Bureau, we are the 42nd-most-expensive county in the nation for median housing costs for owner-occupied units. But we are 142nd on the list of highest-paying metropolitan areas.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html
UNION-TRIBUNE
November 4, 2007
After more than a year's worth of the Great American Mortgage Crisis, some real estate professionals still think the law of supply and demand will kick in to prevent home prices in San Diego from dropping too low.
But people often forget that the economic concept of “demand” also includes “ability” – i.e., ability to pay. As lenders tighten their standards on mortgages – standards that never should have gotten as lax as they were in the past few years – fewer San Diegans will have the ability to buy homes at their current prices.
The median family income in San Diego County is $69,400, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That puts us slightly below the median family income of $73,700 in Madison, Wis.; $71,400 in Denver; $72,600 in Norwich, Conn.; or $72,800 in Worcester, Mass. – to cite some examples from HUD's database.
Although we make less money than the people in those cities, we pay more than twice as much for our housing.
In San Diego, the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the second quarter was $614,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compare that with $223,500 in Madison, $255,200 in Denver, $276,600 in Norwich and $278,900 in Worcester.
According to the Census Bureau, we are the 42nd-most-expensive county in the nation for median housing costs for owner-occupied units. But we are 142nd on the list of highest-paying metropolitan areas.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html
Saturday, November 3, 2007
Valley Housing Market Dismal
November 2nd, 2007 @ 7:43am
by Hanna Scott and Jon Zimney/KTAR
Arizona ranks among the top 10 states in the nation in foreclosures, the number of homes for sale in the Valley is at its highest level in years, and people who absolutely must sell face problems.
``Once we take the listing, we tell them up front that we have to adjust the price every 30s days," said Avi Asallas of Century 21."
And he makes no promises. ``Before, we could sell a house within 30 to 60 days, but now we cannot put a time frame on it because there are so many properties."
One of the biggest problems is the competition from new auctions and foreclosures popping up every day, he said.
Meanwhile, a number of Valley residents are going through foreclosure.
``I bought a house for $400,000 in Maricopa, and my house isn't even worth $280,000," said one woman.
http://ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=636171
by Hanna Scott and Jon Zimney/KTAR
Arizona ranks among the top 10 states in the nation in foreclosures, the number of homes for sale in the Valley is at its highest level in years, and people who absolutely must sell face problems.
``Once we take the listing, we tell them up front that we have to adjust the price every 30s days," said Avi Asallas of Century 21."
And he makes no promises. ``Before, we could sell a house within 30 to 60 days, but now we cannot put a time frame on it because there are so many properties."
One of the biggest problems is the competition from new auctions and foreclosures popping up every day, he said.
Meanwhile, a number of Valley residents are going through foreclosure.
``I bought a house for $400,000 in Maricopa, and my house isn't even worth $280,000," said one woman.
http://ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=636171
Mogul's advice to Realtors: Don't keep your day job
The Southern California market will get worse before it gets better, he warns a gathering. One survival strategy: Slash prices, now.
By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
November 3, 2007
Even Realtors can lose faith in the housing market.
Speaking to a gathering of industry professionals Friday, longtime California real estate titan Fred C. Sands called the housing market "pathetic" and said some agents needed to start looking for other work.
"If you've been in it for five or six years and are barely making a living, you might want to think about what you were doing before and get back into it -- you can come back in a couple of years," Sands told members of the California Assn. of Realtors meeting in Universal City.
In the short term, the local real estate market "is not going to get better," Sands said.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes3nov03,0,7824038.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel
By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
November 3, 2007
Even Realtors can lose faith in the housing market.
Speaking to a gathering of industry professionals Friday, longtime California real estate titan Fred C. Sands called the housing market "pathetic" and said some agents needed to start looking for other work.
"If you've been in it for five or six years and are barely making a living, you might want to think about what you were doing before and get back into it -- you can come back in a couple of years," Sands told members of the California Assn. of Realtors meeting in Universal City.
In the short term, the local real estate market "is not going to get better," Sands said.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes3nov03,0,7824038.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel
Statement on Federal Reserve Rate Cut
October 31, 2007
For immediate release
Washington, DC - Congressman Ron Paul, ranking member of the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy (DIMP), and a nationally recognized expert on monetary policy, issued the following statement regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision to again lower interest rates:
“ America ’s economic difficulties, especially the problems in the housing market, are the direct result of the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. In the past year, we have seen MZM grow by 12%, yet the Fed continues to inflate the money supply. While prices for gold, oil, and staple commodities continue to rise, the purchasing power of the dollar for all Americans continues to fall. Inflationary monetary policies created the problems in the economy we are seeing, and these problems will be made worse, not better, by more inflation. Today’s action by the Fed is very bad news for American workers and retirees who are about to get hit with yet another jump in prices.
Make no mistake, the problems faced by the American people are not caused by unscrupulous mortgage brokers or the rising price of oil. These are symptoms of an economic disease caused by a spendthrift Congress enabled by loose monetary policy. Too many pundits praise the weak dollar as benefiting exporters, but they fail to see the harm done to thrifty, hard-working Americans. Rather than continuing to pursue a policy of easy credit and increasing debt, we need to return to a sound monetary system.”
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press2007/pr103107.htm
For immediate release
Washington, DC - Congressman Ron Paul, ranking member of the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy (DIMP), and a nationally recognized expert on monetary policy, issued the following statement regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision to again lower interest rates:
“ America ’s economic difficulties, especially the problems in the housing market, are the direct result of the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. In the past year, we have seen MZM grow by 12%, yet the Fed continues to inflate the money supply. While prices for gold, oil, and staple commodities continue to rise, the purchasing power of the dollar for all Americans continues to fall. Inflationary monetary policies created the problems in the economy we are seeing, and these problems will be made worse, not better, by more inflation. Today’s action by the Fed is very bad news for American workers and retirees who are about to get hit with yet another jump in prices.
Make no mistake, the problems faced by the American people are not caused by unscrupulous mortgage brokers or the rising price of oil. These are symptoms of an economic disease caused by a spendthrift Congress enabled by loose monetary policy. Too many pundits praise the weak dollar as benefiting exporters, but they fail to see the harm done to thrifty, hard-working Americans. Rather than continuing to pursue a policy of easy credit and increasing debt, we need to return to a sound monetary system.”
http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press2007/pr103107.htm
Friday, November 2, 2007
Residents Against Irresponsible Development
Nicholas Wilbur Miner Staff Writer
The critics used to go by the name Residents Against Irresponsible Development, a group that has, for the past year, been at every city Planning & Zoning and Council meeting carrying those little "RAID" binders filled with notes and questions and homework and research and flyers. Now, the critics are being critiqued by other critics. What a world.
The Miner doesn't secretly orchestrate the RAID symphony, as some in the community have indicated, but because the criticisms have been reduced to name-calling and falsification of facts, I think it's only appropriate that they be addressed.
Basically, a group of critics have come out against RAID, but they're making it personal and avoiding the real issues voters face on Tuesday.
These critics are getting nervous because while they were writing blogs, RAID was attending meetings, asking questions, demanding that the city have some forethought in policy decisions and representing concerns of local residents who didn't want a dog kennel across the street or a liquor store next to a school, a church and a park. RAID has worked to gather signatures to put two issues on the Nov. 6 ballot. One was for a rezone that upset some neighbors near Castle Rock Road. The developer refused to try and diffuse the concerns, despite the mayor's request that he work with them. RAID stood up, took it out of City Council's hands and now you are voting on it.
http://www.kingmandailyminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=4&SubSectionID=4&ArticleID=13474
The critics used to go by the name Residents Against Irresponsible Development, a group that has, for the past year, been at every city Planning & Zoning and Council meeting carrying those little "RAID" binders filled with notes and questions and homework and research and flyers. Now, the critics are being critiqued by other critics. What a world.
The Miner doesn't secretly orchestrate the RAID symphony, as some in the community have indicated, but because the criticisms have been reduced to name-calling and falsification of facts, I think it's only appropriate that they be addressed.
Basically, a group of critics have come out against RAID, but they're making it personal and avoiding the real issues voters face on Tuesday.
These critics are getting nervous because while they were writing blogs, RAID was attending meetings, asking questions, demanding that the city have some forethought in policy decisions and representing concerns of local residents who didn't want a dog kennel across the street or a liquor store next to a school, a church and a park. RAID has worked to gather signatures to put two issues on the Nov. 6 ballot. One was for a rezone that upset some neighbors near Castle Rock Road. The developer refused to try and diffuse the concerns, despite the mayor's request that he work with them. RAID stood up, took it out of City Council's hands and now you are voting on it.
http://www.kingmandailyminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=4&SubSectionID=4&ArticleID=13474
Now That Housing Has Soured, Renters Are Glad They Didn't Buy
by Jane Hodges Thursday, November 1, 2007
With the housing-market slowdown, tightening mortgage-lending standards and rising home foreclosures, renters are more easily answering the question: "Why rent when you can own?" Such a question was common during the housing boom, when homeowners, happy with the gains their homes were making -- at least on paper -- would urge non-property-owner friends to join the party.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103796/Now-That-Housing-Has-Soured,-Renters-Are-Glad-They-Didn’t-Buy;_ylt=Aj2Wv4omaWX98Fa2B599fhC7YWsA
With the housing-market slowdown, tightening mortgage-lending standards and rising home foreclosures, renters are more easily answering the question: "Why rent when you can own?" Such a question was common during the housing boom, when homeowners, happy with the gains their homes were making -- at least on paper -- would urge non-property-owner friends to join the party.
http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103796/Now-That-Housing-Has-Soured,-Renters-Are-Glad-They-Didn’t-Buy;_ylt=Aj2Wv4omaWX98Fa2B599fhC7YWsA
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Fires aren't expected to dampen home sales
But experts see decline ahead in harder hit areas
By Lori Weisberg and Roger ShowleySTAFF WRITERS
October 27, 2007
San Diego County's already fragile real estate market should feel little ill effect from the week's widespread wildfires, but some of the harder hit communities can expect a dip in home sales in the coming months, housing experts say.
While housing sales countywide remain at record lows amid sharply rising foreclosures, it's unlikely that the loss of at least 1,400 homes, as high as that figure sounds, will dampen a market that logs thousands of sales each month, said analyst John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems.
“We've done literally dozens of studies on fires and earthquakes and floods and hurricanes, looking at their impacts on the market, and the trend is always that these events don't mean much except in the short term in deferring some sales activity,” said Karevoll, who was evacuated from his home in Running Springs near Lake Arrowhead, where hundreds of homes were destroyed.
In the fire-damaged areas, “I expect much lower sales counts for the next two to six months, and then there will be a period of time where the market reverts to what it was doing before but plays some catch-up.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071027/news_1b27real.html
By Lori Weisberg and Roger ShowleySTAFF WRITERS
October 27, 2007
San Diego County's already fragile real estate market should feel little ill effect from the week's widespread wildfires, but some of the harder hit communities can expect a dip in home sales in the coming months, housing experts say.
While housing sales countywide remain at record lows amid sharply rising foreclosures, it's unlikely that the loss of at least 1,400 homes, as high as that figure sounds, will dampen a market that logs thousands of sales each month, said analyst John Karevoll of DataQuick Information Systems.
“We've done literally dozens of studies on fires and earthquakes and floods and hurricanes, looking at their impacts on the market, and the trend is always that these events don't mean much except in the short term in deferring some sales activity,” said Karevoll, who was evacuated from his home in Running Springs near Lake Arrowhead, where hundreds of homes were destroyed.
In the fire-damaged areas, “I expect much lower sales counts for the next two to six months, and then there will be a period of time where the market reverts to what it was doing before but plays some catch-up.”
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20071027/news_1b27real.html
Friday, October 26, 2007
Foreclosures
I think I'll play with the foreclosure subject today. If you are planning on purchasing in Kingman or Mohave County, you need to do as much research as you can and foreclosures are an important part of the current market. I'll address the importance of this further down. I'll also add a couple of permanent links to our link section for foreclosure sites.
The Countrywide link also includes several other links on the left side of the page that go to other bank reo sites. All of the bank sites include addresses of the properties.
The foreclosure.com site is a pay site and does not include addresses without a subscription. However, the preforeclosures include a owner name and street name and using those the address can be looked up on the Mohave county tax accessor site.
The bank owned properties have added another "just pick a number" pricing level to an already "just pick a number" owner pricing level. If you don't do the research yourself, you are liable to buy a home that is as much as 100k more than another nearly identical house. I have found that the realtors don't seem to be following the foreclosure market and I would recommend doing your own research and not just blindly accepting your realtors word.
This is difficult to do with the information that the Mohave MLS supplies. Without addresses you are at the mercy of what the realtors choose to tell you about, unless you do your own research. You cannot just see a property on realtor.com and see that it is in your area of interest and contact the realtor.
I am lucky that I have access to a site that supplies the addresses for mls properties. It is a site that my realtor subscribes her buyers to. You can find out more by contacting either Sandy or Cecelia, whose sites are in the links on the right hand side. Both are very good at their jobs, not pushy sales types. They are just out to help you find and purchase a home without pressure. Sandy will help you find a home anywhere in Mohave County and will send you an email with each new listing that meets your criteria. Cecelia is a mortgage banker who can help you with a mortgage and also sends emails out with current interest and lending news.
The Mission Hills Estates subdivision is one that I can use to point out why knowledge is very important in this market. This subdivision was built in the spring of 2006. The houses are on 4000'+ lots. They are mostly 1869'+/- houses with some 1538'+/- floorplans. The original homes were priced from 239,000 to 299,000. A few of the smaller houses sold at the beginning. The builders apparently then rented out many of the remaining homes and the majority of the subdivision is still either rented or vacant. A California investor also purchased 5 of the larger homes for 289,000 in the summer of 2006.
Now fast forward to 2007. At least three of the smaller homes went into foreclosure and are now bank owned. Another two of the larger homes also went into foreclosure. All five of the investor homes were put on the market for 199,900 (90,000) less than he paid. None of them were sold even at the lower price and they have gone into foreclosure. Now here is where the bizarre pricing comes in.
Even though there were 1869' homes for sale for 199,900, one of the 1538' bank owned properties was originally priced by the bank at 229,000. They have since lowered it to 193,900. And as the 1869' homes go through foreclosure and become bank owned, the banks are listing them at a higher price than the owner listing.
There are six homes for sale as of today's listings. Two of the 1538' homes are 193,9000 and 195,500. The four 1869' homes are priced at 197,500, 199,900, 219,900, and 225,900. These houses are all the same, the two less expensive ones have never been lived in. The two more expensive ones may have been rentals.
Then we have the Rhodes Villas, another 69 home subdivision originally built and sold in late 2005. Nearly all were purchased by speculators and as they were completed were put back on the market for resale at an inflated price. A few were flipped for a profit in early 2006, but most owners ended up renting the homes out. By late 2006/early 2007, several were again put on the market. Some were priced at what they had paid, some were priced higher and some were priced lower. No real rhyme or reason to the "just pick a number" pricing.
Now fast forward to 2007. One of the original models was sold originally for 364,275 in 2005. The model was priced at about 140,000 above what the base prices were. The home went into foreclosure and is now bank owned. The bank has priced it at 199,000, it has 2192' and as of yet it has not sold. It has been listed for about 1.5 months. The second model home is still apparently owned by the original owner and may be rented. The third and final model home is owned by Rhodes and shows an original price of 299,824. It is currently on the market for 309,724 and has 1866'. The original non-model homes sold for 181, 825 to 255,875, depending on the upgrades added. The majority sold for around 181-205. A few are currently on the market, some priced at less than they paid in 2005.
There are many houses on the market priced at less than the current owners paid in 2005/2006. A house on our block is bank owned and priced at only $900. more than the last owner paid in 12/2004 and it has been on the market since August 8th.
As more and more foreclosures come on the market, opportunities to purchase homes for a reasonable amount should increase. The builder discounts and foreclosures should force the resale home prices down. Builders are continuing to grade and build homes, even as hundreds sit unsold on the market. Many home prices here doubled and tripled between late 2004 and early 2005 for no fundamental based reason. Lot prices went up as much as 20 times during the same period. The prices increased mainly due to a credit bubble and a frenzy of speculative buying. Prices are falling across the country and despite what the realtors tell you, it is not "different" in Mohave County.
If you are going to buy, do your own research. Do not depend on the advise of someone who's pay check depends on your purchase. Make sure you can afford the payments and don't depend on appreciation in the near future.
The Countrywide link also includes several other links on the left side of the page that go to other bank reo sites. All of the bank sites include addresses of the properties.
The foreclosure.com site is a pay site and does not include addresses without a subscription. However, the preforeclosures include a owner name and street name and using those the address can be looked up on the Mohave county tax accessor site.
The bank owned properties have added another "just pick a number" pricing level to an already "just pick a number" owner pricing level. If you don't do the research yourself, you are liable to buy a home that is as much as 100k more than another nearly identical house. I have found that the realtors don't seem to be following the foreclosure market and I would recommend doing your own research and not just blindly accepting your realtors word.
This is difficult to do with the information that the Mohave MLS supplies. Without addresses you are at the mercy of what the realtors choose to tell you about, unless you do your own research. You cannot just see a property on realtor.com and see that it is in your area of interest and contact the realtor.
I am lucky that I have access to a site that supplies the addresses for mls properties. It is a site that my realtor subscribes her buyers to. You can find out more by contacting either Sandy or Cecelia, whose sites are in the links on the right hand side. Both are very good at their jobs, not pushy sales types. They are just out to help you find and purchase a home without pressure. Sandy will help you find a home anywhere in Mohave County and will send you an email with each new listing that meets your criteria. Cecelia is a mortgage banker who can help you with a mortgage and also sends emails out with current interest and lending news.
The Mission Hills Estates subdivision is one that I can use to point out why knowledge is very important in this market. This subdivision was built in the spring of 2006. The houses are on 4000'+ lots. They are mostly 1869'+/- houses with some 1538'+/- floorplans. The original homes were priced from 239,000 to 299,000. A few of the smaller houses sold at the beginning. The builders apparently then rented out many of the remaining homes and the majority of the subdivision is still either rented or vacant. A California investor also purchased 5 of the larger homes for 289,000 in the summer of 2006.
Now fast forward to 2007. At least three of the smaller homes went into foreclosure and are now bank owned. Another two of the larger homes also went into foreclosure. All five of the investor homes were put on the market for 199,900 (90,000) less than he paid. None of them were sold even at the lower price and they have gone into foreclosure. Now here is where the bizarre pricing comes in.
Even though there were 1869' homes for sale for 199,900, one of the 1538' bank owned properties was originally priced by the bank at 229,000. They have since lowered it to 193,900. And as the 1869' homes go through foreclosure and become bank owned, the banks are listing them at a higher price than the owner listing.
There are six homes for sale as of today's listings. Two of the 1538' homes are 193,9000 and 195,500. The four 1869' homes are priced at 197,500, 199,900, 219,900, and 225,900. These houses are all the same, the two less expensive ones have never been lived in. The two more expensive ones may have been rentals.
Then we have the Rhodes Villas, another 69 home subdivision originally built and sold in late 2005. Nearly all were purchased by speculators and as they were completed were put back on the market for resale at an inflated price. A few were flipped for a profit in early 2006, but most owners ended up renting the homes out. By late 2006/early 2007, several were again put on the market. Some were priced at what they had paid, some were priced higher and some were priced lower. No real rhyme or reason to the "just pick a number" pricing.
Now fast forward to 2007. One of the original models was sold originally for 364,275 in 2005. The model was priced at about 140,000 above what the base prices were. The home went into foreclosure and is now bank owned. The bank has priced it at 199,000, it has 2192' and as of yet it has not sold. It has been listed for about 1.5 months. The second model home is still apparently owned by the original owner and may be rented. The third and final model home is owned by Rhodes and shows an original price of 299,824. It is currently on the market for 309,724 and has 1866'. The original non-model homes sold for 181, 825 to 255,875, depending on the upgrades added. The majority sold for around 181-205. A few are currently on the market, some priced at less than they paid in 2005.
There are many houses on the market priced at less than the current owners paid in 2005/2006. A house on our block is bank owned and priced at only $900. more than the last owner paid in 12/2004 and it has been on the market since August 8th.
As more and more foreclosures come on the market, opportunities to purchase homes for a reasonable amount should increase. The builder discounts and foreclosures should force the resale home prices down. Builders are continuing to grade and build homes, even as hundreds sit unsold on the market. Many home prices here doubled and tripled between late 2004 and early 2005 for no fundamental based reason. Lot prices went up as much as 20 times during the same period. The prices increased mainly due to a credit bubble and a frenzy of speculative buying. Prices are falling across the country and despite what the realtors tell you, it is not "different" in Mohave County.
If you are going to buy, do your own research. Do not depend on the advise of someone who's pay check depends on your purchase. Make sure you can afford the payments and don't depend on appreciation in the near future.
Drought Monitor
I've added a link on the right side of the page to an Arizona Drought Monitor. You can also get to other states from that page by clicking on the "return to US drought monitor" on the left top corner of the Arizona page.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
Phoenix Flippers In Trouble
This blogger site has losses on specific houses shown. Each house shows the previous sales price and the current listing price. The blogger who recently started this site has been running a Sacramento Calif. Flipper loss site for years and decided to put Phoenix info on a new site.
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
http://phoenixflippers.blogspot.com/
Wednesday, October 24, 2007
Coyote Springs
This is an interesting Q&A with the developer of Coyote Springs, a huge subdivision north of Las Vegas.
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html
http://www.inbusinesslasvegas.com/2007/10/19/qanda.html
Arizona Housing Links
October 21, 2007
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085
**********
New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007
When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.
In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can't compete with builders' rock-bottom prices.
Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396
**********
Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM
Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.
Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.
Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona's mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn't otherwise afford the rising home prices.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html
Homebuilders offer incentives, discounts
Misty Williams, Tribune
http://www.tribunehomefinder.com/story/100085
**********
New-home market flooded on outskirts as builders, owners compete
By Christie Smythe and Lourdes Medrano
Arizona DAily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.21.2007
When the market was at its peak, some of the hottest areas were northwest, southeast and southwest of the city. But now, buyers no longer line up to buy homes in outlying subdivisions. Instead, builders slash prices, pack on incentives and still are left with unsold spec homes and empty lots.
In many cases, homeowners trying to sell properties in newer developments are finding they can't compete with builders' rock-bottom prices.
Tucson housing market consultant John Strobeck, of Bright Future Business Consultants, declined to comment for this story. But previously, in describing his monthly sales report, the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, Strobeck said the market is suffering from an oversupply of both new and resale homes, and conditions might not improve until 2010.
http://www.azstarnet.com/dailystar/207396
**********
Many Valley homeowners pressured or tricked into bad loans, experts say
Catherine Reagor
The Arizona Republic
Oct. 21, 2007 12:00 AM
Arizona is second only to Nevada for subprime loans, and the mortgage industry is bleeding billions of dollars from losses on those types of loans. Interest rates on the biggest block of subprime adjustable-rate mortgages are set to climb by the end of the year, prompting market watchers to predict the largest jump in foreclosures to happen in early 2008.
Loose lending guidelines and speculators fueled the housing boom in 2004 and 2005.
Home prices across metropolitan Phoenix shot up 50 percent because of speculator-driven bidding wars. With little regulation in Arizona's mortgage industry, loan officers flocked to the state offering more creative, and often riskier, financing to any buyer who couldn't otherwise afford the rising home prices.
http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/1021bad-loans1021.html
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Monthly ARM Reset Schedule
This chart shows that the majority of the loan resets don't happen until Jan-June 2008.
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/resetbigchart.gif
http://blogs.ocregister.com/mortgage/resetbigchart.gif
Monday, October 22, 2007
Its Credit and its Crunchy
A funny video from the UK regarding the Northern Rock Bank run and the mortgage securitization business.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br8mOmH9frE
And another British video on subprime loans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VeNwG3xms&NR=1
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=br8mOmH9frE
And another British video on subprime loans
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z5VeNwG3xms&NR=1
Friday, October 19, 2007
Tucson - Analyst: Housing slowdown will linger until 2010
http://www.azstarnet.com/business/206856
Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007
A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.
In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.
"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.
Expects high inventory, sales slide will delay local recovery until 2010
By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 10.18.2007
A Tucson housing market analyst is projecting a much deeper, longer slowdown than earlier anticipated.
In his monthly Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter, analyst John Strobeck said it might not recover until 2010 if inventory levels remain high and the sales pace stays the same.
"It will be at least that long, maybe longer," he said in a phone interview.
Thursday, October 18, 2007
Hillary! Uncensored - Banned By The Media
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=7007109937779036019
The Roughcut Trailer for- Hillary!Uncensored-the Documentary Using Exclusive Home Videos of Hillary to Expose the Illegalities that Elected Hillary to the Senate and the Obstructions of Justice That Keep Her There-
The Roughcut Trailer for- Hillary!Uncensored-the Documentary Using Exclusive Home Videos of Hillary to Expose the Illegalities that Elected Hillary to the Senate and the Obstructions of Justice That Keep Her There-
More California Housing
http://www.mercurynews.com/ci_7175582?nclick_check=1
Big winners, losers at auction of new Manteca homes
THOSE WHO GOT HOUSES ARE ECSTATIC, PAYING FAR LESS THAN CURRENT OWNERS
By Julia Prodis SulekMercury News
When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."
Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.
These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.
**********
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/A_NEWS/710160320/-1/A_BIZ
Stockton agent offering foreclosure bus tours
By Bruce Spence
Record Staff Writer
October 16, 2007 6:00 AM
STOCKTON - It's not a magic bus, just a vividly marked one - REPO HOME TOUR.COM - that real estate agent Cesar Dias hopes will work some magic for him in a bleak home-sales market.
Big winners, losers at auction of new Manteca homes
THOSE WHO GOT HOUSES ARE ECSTATIC, PAYING FAR LESS THAN CURRENT OWNERS
By Julia Prodis SulekMercury News
When homeowner Dave Cantrell walked into the hotel ballroom Saturday where Anderson Homes was auctioning off one-third of the brand-new houses in his Manteca subdivision, he tried to be optimistic.
"I'm feeling my worst fears right now," said Cantrell, who estimated that the auction devalued his neighbors' homes by roughly $200,000 each compared with what many of them paid a year ago. "I lost a quarter million dollars in value. I'm screwed."
Cantrell bought his home a year ago for $670,000 (not including the $90,000 he paid to install a pool and miniature golf course). The winning bidder Saturday of an identical home five doors down the street paid $391,000 - 38 percent less than what he paid.
These houses are not in foreclosure. They are brand-new ones that Anderson Homes couldn't sell no matter how many free upgrades it offered.
**********
http://www.recordnet.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20071016/A_NEWS/710160320/-1/A_BIZ
Stockton agent offering foreclosure bus tours
By Bruce Spence
Record Staff Writer
October 16, 2007 6:00 AM
STOCKTON - It's not a magic bus, just a vividly marked one - REPO HOME TOUR.COM - that real estate agent Cesar Dias hopes will work some magic for him in a bleak home-sales market.
California Housing Articles
Some of these articles are on Riverside and San Bernardino counties. The closest counties to Mohave in both distance and weather. They are usually the first to fall in Cali bubbles and usually in the group that is hardest hit with declines.
http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_dataquick17.3e070b0.html
Inland housing sales plummet
12:23 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By LESLIE BERKMAN The Press-Enterprise
Housing sales fell at a record rate and home prices declined by double digits last month in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
**********
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071017-9999-1n17housing.html
Housing slump persists
Credit crunch fuels drop in sales, prices in 6-county region
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
October 17, 2007
Home sales throughout Southern California plunged last month to their lowest levels in more than a decade, with prices falling in most areas as well, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
**********
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_7198530
Region home sales lowest in 2 decades
Difficulties getting jumbo loans called major factor in downturn
By Michael Rappaport Staff Writer
Blame it on jumbo.
No, not the 1962 Doris Day/Jimmy Durante movie about a lovable elephant.
These jumbos are the mortgages required when a home loan exceeds federal lending limits, and they're a drag on the California housing market.
September home sales in the Southland were at their lowest level in more than 20 years, DataQuick Information Services reported Tuesday, and the difficulty in getting jumbo mortgages was a big factor.
Actually, the sales total of 12,455 homes in the region was the lowest for any month, edging the 12,459 sales in February 1995.
The biggest price drops came in San Bernardino County, off 11 percent to $325,000, and Riverside County, off 10.8 percent to $375,500.
"Things are clearly getting worse," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics. "It's going to remain terrible for some time."
**********
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_7198220
Lenders that repossessed property slashing prices
BY GREGORY J. WILCOX and RICK COCA, Staff Writers
Article Last Updated: 10/17/2007 08:51:31 AM PDT
Looking to bottom feed in this depressed real estate market?
Try finding a foreclosure because you might snap it up for about 20 percent or more under its recent market value.
Take a foreclosed home in Winnekta on the market for $404,900. The asking price is 24 percent lower than what the former owner paid in June of 2006, according to Realtor Steve Smallson.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
**********
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-homes17oct17,1,6588480,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&ctrack=1&cset=true
Southland home sales and prices plummet
Southland purchases in September fall nearly 50% from a year earlier. Prices drop overall, but L.A. County's rise 1.2%.
By Peter Y. Hong and Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers October 17, 2007
Home sales in Southern California plummeted in September to a two-decade low, and a rash of grim housing-market assessments Tuesday suggested the worst is yet to come."We're on our way down and still picking up speed," said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles-based economist who four years ago warned that the pace of housing price gains in the region couldn't be sustained.
Garden Grove real estate broker Patrick Schwier, who specializes in apartment buildings, said he had sold 70% fewer buildings this year compared with the same period in 2006, and recently saw one sale fall through when the potential buyer's loan application was rejected.
Schwier said he saw two more years of falling sales and prices.
"Prices were too inflated when credit was easier," he said, and now home prices, though they've been slipping, still "don't make sense. And they will drop until they make sense."
**********
http://www.ocregister.com/money/price-percent-down-1894419-last-sales
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Home prices fall, but many still can't buy
Orange County median falls below $600,000, but agents still have trouble moving inventory.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
The median price of an Orange County home fell 9.5 percent from the year before, dropping to $570,000. It is the first month in 2 ½ years that the median price – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – has dropped below $600,000.
That price was down $75,000, or nearly 12 percent, from the peak price of $645,000 reached in June. In the last down cycle, the drop from the peak to bottom was 16.3 percent from July 1991 to January 1996, according to DataQuick.
http://www.pe.com/localnews/inland/stories/PE_News_Local_S_dataquick17.3e070b0.html
Inland housing sales plummet
12:23 PM PDT on Wednesday, October 17, 2007
By LESLIE BERKMAN The Press-Enterprise
Housing sales fell at a record rate and home prices declined by double digits last month in Riverside and San Bernardino counties.
**********
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/metro/20071017-9999-1n17housing.html
Housing slump persists
Credit crunch fuels drop in sales, prices in 6-county region
By Roger Showley
UNION-TRIBUNE STAFF WRITER
October 17, 2007
Home sales throughout Southern California plunged last month to their lowest levels in more than a decade, with prices falling in most areas as well, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday.
**********
http://www.whittierdailynews.com/news/ci_7198530
Region home sales lowest in 2 decades
Difficulties getting jumbo loans called major factor in downturn
By Michael Rappaport Staff Writer
Blame it on jumbo.
No, not the 1962 Doris Day/Jimmy Durante movie about a lovable elephant.
These jumbos are the mortgages required when a home loan exceeds federal lending limits, and they're a drag on the California housing market.
September home sales in the Southland were at their lowest level in more than 20 years, DataQuick Information Services reported Tuesday, and the difficulty in getting jumbo mortgages was a big factor.
Actually, the sales total of 12,455 homes in the region was the lowest for any month, edging the 12,459 sales in February 1995.
The biggest price drops came in San Bernardino County, off 11 percent to $325,000, and Riverside County, off 10.8 percent to $375,500.
"Things are clearly getting worse," said Christopher Thornberg, a principal with Beacon Economics. "It's going to remain terrible for some time."
**********
http://www.dailynews.com/news/ci_7198220
Lenders that repossessed property slashing prices
BY GREGORY J. WILCOX and RICK COCA, Staff Writers
Article Last Updated: 10/17/2007 08:51:31 AM PDT
Looking to bottom feed in this depressed real estate market?
Try finding a foreclosure because you might snap it up for about 20 percent or more under its recent market value.
Take a foreclosed home in Winnekta on the market for $404,900. The asking price is 24 percent lower than what the former owner paid in June of 2006, according to Realtor Steve Smallson.
70 percent of homeowners who are foreclosed on bought their homes between 2003 and 2005. Homeowners who bought during this period and at the peak of the housing market are likely to be in a negative equity position now.
**********
http://www.latimes.com/news/printedition/front/la-fi-homes17oct17,1,6588480,full.story?coll=la-headlines-frontpage&ctrack=1&cset=true
Southland home sales and prices plummet
Southland purchases in September fall nearly 50% from a year earlier. Prices drop overall, but L.A. County's rise 1.2%.
By Peter Y. Hong and Maura Reynolds, Los Angeles Times Staff Writers October 17, 2007
Home sales in Southern California plummeted in September to a two-decade low, and a rash of grim housing-market assessments Tuesday suggested the worst is yet to come."We're on our way down and still picking up speed," said Christopher Thornberg, a Los Angeles-based economist who four years ago warned that the pace of housing price gains in the region couldn't be sustained.
Garden Grove real estate broker Patrick Schwier, who specializes in apartment buildings, said he had sold 70% fewer buildings this year compared with the same period in 2006, and recently saw one sale fall through when the potential buyer's loan application was rejected.
Schwier said he saw two more years of falling sales and prices.
"Prices were too inflated when credit was easier," he said, and now home prices, though they've been slipping, still "don't make sense. And they will drop until they make sense."
**********
http://www.ocregister.com/money/price-percent-down-1894419-last-sales
Tuesday, October 16, 2007
Home prices fall, but many still can't buy
Orange County median falls below $600,000, but agents still have trouble moving inventory.
By JEFF COLLINS
The Orange County Register
The median price of an Orange County home fell 9.5 percent from the year before, dropping to $570,000. It is the first month in 2 ½ years that the median price – or the price at the midpoint of all sales – has dropped below $600,000.
That price was down $75,000, or nearly 12 percent, from the peak price of $645,000 reached in June. In the last down cycle, the drop from the peak to bottom was 16.3 percent from July 1991 to January 1996, according to DataQuick.
The Latte Era Grinds Down
http://www.newsweek.com/id/43345
Average Americans were living like the Riches, thanks to easy credit and the real-estate bubble. Now they're trading down instead of trading up.
By Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK
Oct 22, 2007 Issue
Average Americans were living like the Riches, thanks to easy credit and the real-estate bubble. Now they're trading down instead of trading up.
By Daniel Gross NEWSWEEK
Oct 22, 2007 Issue
House prices expected to fall until 2009
http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Banking/HomebuyingGuide/HousePricesExpectedToFallUntil2009.aspx
The continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will suppress housing prices at least through the end of next year, say officials with the biggest mortgage financiers.
U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation's biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.
Officials with government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and CEOs from two major mortgage banks told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention that the continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will prevent any quick price rebound.
"It's going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover," said David Lowman, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase's Global Mortgage unit. "There's too much inventory already in the marketplace."
The continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will suppress housing prices at least through the end of next year, say officials with the biggest mortgage financiers.
U.S. housing prices will continue to decline at least through the end of next year and may not begin creeping upward again until 2010, executives from the nation's biggest mortgage financiers said Monday.
Officials with government-sponsored mortgage companies Fannie Mae (FNM, news, msgs) and Freddie Mac (FRE, news, msgs) and CEOs from two major mortgage banks told the Mortgage Bankers Association's annual convention that the continuing spike in foreclosures and a glut of unsold homes will prevent any quick price rebound.
"It's going to be a long time before we see it bottom out and recover," said David Lowman, chief executive of JPMorgan Chase's Global Mortgage unit. "There's too much inventory already in the marketplace."
Las Vegas Articles
http://www.klas-tv.com/Global/story.asp?S=7217324
Jonathan Humbert, Reporter
Nevada Faces Budget Shortfall
Oct 16, 2007 03:36 PM MST
Nevada could be facing another budget shortfall which means state leaders are facing tough decisions about what services and programs to cut.
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571036.html
Oct. 16, 2007
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEES DEALS
By MARGARET ANN MIILLE REVIEW-JOURNAL
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571071.html
Oct. 16, 2007
To sell homes in down market, use strategy, observers say
By JENNIFER ROBISON REVIEW-JOURNAL
A foundering market with falling prices and more than 30,000 homes for sale in Southern Nevada. It's enough to paralyze any prospective home buyer. So how do home sellers convince skittish consumers that their place is a safe bet and that now is a solid time to buy? Realtors say pushing consumers off the fence requires a combination of emotional appeals and economic inducements. And for some sellers, the best answer is to sit out the market altogether.
Jonathan Humbert, Reporter
Nevada Faces Budget Shortfall
Oct 16, 2007 03:36 PM MST
Nevada could be facing another budget shortfall which means state leaders are facing tough decisions about what services and programs to cut.
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571036.html
Oct. 16, 2007
REAL ESTATE INVESTOR SEES DEALS
By MARGARET ANN MIILLE REVIEW-JOURNAL
**********
http://www.lvrj.com/business/10571071.html
Oct. 16, 2007
To sell homes in down market, use strategy, observers say
By JENNIFER ROBISON REVIEW-JOURNAL
A foundering market with falling prices and more than 30,000 homes for sale in Southern Nevada. It's enough to paralyze any prospective home buyer. So how do home sellers convince skittish consumers that their place is a safe bet and that now is a solid time to buy? Realtors say pushing consumers off the fence requires a combination of emotional appeals and economic inducements. And for some sellers, the best answer is to sit out the market altogether.
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Phoenix Housing Articles
Here are some recent housing articles on Phoenix:
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1016biz-AZresale16-ON.html
**************
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1015biz-economy1016.html
Housing worries generally optimistic Valley experts
Betty BeardThe Arizona Republic Oct. 15, 2007 05:48 PM
"Brutal" and "perfect storm" are some of the descriptions local economists now use to describe economic conditions in Maricopa County.
While things could get worse before they get better, the economists said the area also has a diversified economy and continued job growth that will keep the climate from getting overly gloomy.
Governments are already noticing that spending is slowing down because of sales tax revenues at the state and county levels, said speakers addressing the Maricopa County Economic Forum Monday.
*************
http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=591487
Ashton Woods Hit Hard By $10.6 Million Quarterly Loss
Atlanta-based builder is focusing on cutting costs and generating new orders through sales incentives.
During the quarter, the average sales price of this builder's homes fell 7.9 percent, to $270,000, with the biggest dip - 33.3 percent - in the Phoenix market, to $305,000. "Phoenix is one of the more depressed [housing] markets, with a tremendous price problem," Krobat told BUILDER during an interview earlier this month.
**************
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/99713
Gilbert Esplanade sold
David Woodfill, Tribune
Developers of the planned Gilbert Esplanade have sold the property, becoming the second builder of a major retail center to announce an ownership change in less than a month.
Officials with Phoenix-based De Rito Partners said they decided to sell the site at Gilbert Road and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway to an Ohio-based firm when it was unable to fill an anchor space.........
Dawn McLaren, a research economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in Tempe, said retail developers are feeling the new realities in the housing market. “Things have changed in Arizona, she said”
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1016biz-AZresale16-ON.html
**************
http://www.azcentral.com/business/articles/1015biz-economy1016.html
Housing worries generally optimistic Valley experts
Betty BeardThe Arizona Republic Oct. 15, 2007 05:48 PM
"Brutal" and "perfect storm" are some of the descriptions local economists now use to describe economic conditions in Maricopa County.
While things could get worse before they get better, the economists said the area also has a diversified economy and continued job growth that will keep the climate from getting overly gloomy.
Governments are already noticing that spending is slowing down because of sales tax revenues at the state and county levels, said speakers addressing the Maricopa County Economic Forum Monday.
*************
http://www.builderonline.com/industry-news.asp?sectionID=26&articleID=591487
Ashton Woods Hit Hard By $10.6 Million Quarterly Loss
Atlanta-based builder is focusing on cutting costs and generating new orders through sales incentives.
During the quarter, the average sales price of this builder's homes fell 7.9 percent, to $270,000, with the biggest dip - 33.3 percent - in the Phoenix market, to $305,000. "Phoenix is one of the more depressed [housing] markets, with a tremendous price problem," Krobat told BUILDER during an interview earlier this month.
**************
http://www.eastvalleytribune.com/story/99713
Gilbert Esplanade sold
David Woodfill, Tribune
Developers of the planned Gilbert Esplanade have sold the property, becoming the second builder of a major retail center to announce an ownership change in less than a month.
Officials with Phoenix-based De Rito Partners said they decided to sell the site at Gilbert Road and the Loop 202 Santan Freeway to an Ohio-based firm when it was unable to fill an anchor space.........
Dawn McLaren, a research economist with the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University in Tempe, said retail developers are feeling the new realities in the housing market. “Things have changed in Arizona, she said”
Monday, October 15, 2007
October 12, 2007 4:25 PM ET
Home builders likely to see further downgrades
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The downgrade of three home builders into junk territory by Moody's Investors Service may only be the start of a rash of cuts of high grade builders into high yield, which may present funding challenges for some companies.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp , Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071012&ID=7623404
Home builders likely to see further downgrades
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The downgrade of three home builders into junk territory by Moody's Investors Service may only be the start of a rash of cuts of high grade builders into high yield, which may present funding challenges for some companies.
Moody's Investors Service on Thursday cut its ratings on home builders Centex Corp , Lennar Corp and Pulte Homes to junk status, saying it expects bleak housing industry conditions to linger at least until 2009.
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=OBR&Date=20071012&ID=7623404
Thursday, October 11, 2007
The United States of Subprime
Data Show Bad LoansPermeate the Nation;Pain Could Last Years
By RICK BROOKS and CONSTANCE MITCHELL FORD
October 11, 2007; As America's mortgage markets began unraveling this year, economists seeking explanations pointed to "subprime" mortgages issued to low-income, minority and urban borrowers. But an analysis of more than 130 million home loans made over the past decade reveals that risky mortgages were made in nearly every corner of the nation, from small towns in the middle of nowhere to inner cities to affluent suburbs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
By RICK BROOKS and CONSTANCE MITCHELL FORD
October 11, 2007; As America's mortgage markets began unraveling this year, economists seeking explanations pointed to "subprime" mortgages issued to low-income, minority and urban borrowers. But an analysis of more than 130 million home loans made over the past decade reveals that risky mortgages were made in nearly every corner of the nation, from small towns in the middle of nowhere to inner cities to affluent suburbs.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB119205925519455321.html?mod=hpp_us_whats_news
Saturday, October 6, 2007
The Fed Rate Cut Aftermath
Mr Practical Oct 04, 2007 9:45 am
As stocks climb to new highs, let’s look at what the Fed’s rate cuts have really done. 30 year mortgage rates before the cut... 6.375%. 30-year mortgage rates after the cut... 6.625%. Stocks’ reaction... priceless.
Forget about 5-year ARMs and interest-only loans. Those are priced completely differently now and are bones in the sand. A mortgage broker at a big bank tells me business is down significantly with no signs of picking up.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/banks-Fed+rate+cut-mortgage-ARMs-speculating/index/a/14350
As stocks climb to new highs, let’s look at what the Fed’s rate cuts have really done. 30 year mortgage rates before the cut... 6.375%. 30-year mortgage rates after the cut... 6.625%. Stocks’ reaction... priceless.
Forget about 5-year ARMs and interest-only loans. Those are priced completely differently now and are bones in the sand. A mortgage broker at a big bank tells me business is down significantly with no signs of picking up.
http://www.minyanville.com/articles/banks-Fed+rate+cut-mortgage-ARMs-speculating/index/a/14350
Thursday, October 4, 2007
Robert Kuttner Testimony to Committee of Financial Services
This is a testimony before the US House of Representatives on the parallels of banking practices of the 1920's and current times by Robert Kuttner.
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/testimony_-_kuttner.pdf
http://www.house.gov/apps/list/hearing/financialsvcs_dem/testimony_-_kuttner.pdf
Monday, October 1, 2007
Housing Industry Outlook
I'm only putting a link because the realtor that wrote this piece does not allow postings on other sites. It is interesting because this is written by Mike Morgan who owns a real estate company in Florida and is an analyst and consultant also:
http://www.treasure-coast.us/weeklyupdate09-23-07
http://www.treasure-coast.us/weeklyupdate09-23-07
Rating the real cost of inflation
The fedaral government says that inflation is under control at 2% to 3% a year — with prices up 15 percent since 2002 — but some key prices have risen much faster, and critics charge that the government is undercounting the pace of inflation
By Dean Calbreath STAFF WRITER
September 30, 2007
If you're like the average American, when you fill your car up at the gas pump, you're paying 84 percent more than you were in 2000, for an average price rise of 12 percent per year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070930/news_1b30inflate.html
By Dean Calbreath STAFF WRITER
September 30, 2007
If you're like the average American, when you fill your car up at the gas pump, you're paying 84 percent more than you were in 2000, for an average price rise of 12 percent per year, according to the latest data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20070930/news_1b30inflate.html
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