How a housing boom turned into a bust

Housing woes have domino effect

By Kathy Chu with Sharon Silke Carty, Greg Farrell, Barbara Hagenbaugh, Edward Iwata, Noelle Knox and Adam Shell

If you haven't yet felt the impact of the nation's credit crisis, just wait. Chances are, you won't have to wait long.

So far, the turmoil may feel a bit remote for average people: Failed mortgage lenders. Gargantuan write-downs by banks. Foreclosures for people who couldn't really afford the mortgages they got.

What about the rest of us? Are we in danger? No one knows for sure, but quite likely, yes.

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/2007-11-25-credit-crunch_N.htm

A good article from USA Today with lots of charts.

U.S.Real Estate:How it affects your financial future

Here is an interesting YouTube video, there are several more by the same people listed on the right side of the page.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5kNJgLwD3Y&feature=related

Home Builder Woes Spell More Trouble

Current U.S. housing decline will be worst since Depression, says Ken Rosen.

Video......

http://www.marketwatch.com/tvradio/player.asp?guid={44C53817-F5F3-403A-9262-7D907DE58687}

Tucson - Builders call for relief on local home- impact fees

By Christie Smythe
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona Published: 11.15.2007

Home builders are working to roll back or delay some Tucson-area impact fees to help the new-home industry weather its slump.

The Southern Arizona Home Builders Association has been asking local governments to allow builders to postpone paying impact fees until after houses are sold rather than when construction permits are issued. The organization also is working to delay and temporarily reduce a new impact fee in Marana.

http://www.azstarnet.com/allheadlines/211719

Bearish mood in commercial sector

This is from the UK, but the article is about the US commercial real estate market.


By Daniel Pimlott in New York
Published: November 13 2007 02:00 Last updated: November 13 2007 02:00

"In the US we've spent 15 years building the concept of securitisation into real estate," said Eric Schwartz, joint head of Deutsche Bank's commercial property arm. "I don't think anybody is prepared to believe that the events of the last three months have changed everything."

In spite of Wall Street's hopes, the signs at the moment are not good in commercial real estate, as fears rise that a flight from commercial mortgage backed securities could be pushing commercial real estate prices lower.

Investors are increasingly betting that the booming commercial real estate market is heading for a downturn. Yields on CMBS have soared to levels not seen since the late 1990s, indicating that they are seen as riskier.

In the third quarter, the average loan was 118 per cent of the property value, according to Moody's, which includes expectations of properties incomes over several years in their calculations. That level of leverage is "really kind of creepy" says Sally Gordon head of commercial property research at Moody's.

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ab0c89ca-918e-11dc-9590-0000779fd2ac.html?nclick_check=1

Why Would Anyone Want to Move To.....

Someone on the topix forum mentioned Kentucky and the low cost of housing and mild weather. I mentioned that retiree's would likely move to where ever they felt the cost of living was lowest and fit their wants.

One of the local realtors said "Who wants to retire and live in Kentucky? "

I have always said that not every retiree wants to live in a hot climate and I looked on a California city-data forum that was asking where people were going to move if they left California. Only two mentioned AZ and one of those said they had moved but they wanted to move back to Calif. Of the rest of the comments, Colorado stood out as one of the top destinations, which pretty much fits in with where people I know have moved or want to move to. Many also mentioned what they were looking for was...1)low cost of housing 2) small rural town 3) no need for extensive shopping etc. I clipped the "where we're going part" out of each of the individual posts.......Here it is:

We've been thinking about moving to San Antonio

We have found the cost of living in Tennessee

We are researching Arkansas

We are deciding between three towns in western WA

I'm staying put, right here in California

I have made the decision to leave CA and am moving to NE Arkansas

I just got back from my second scouting trip to Denver.

I have been looking at Oregon, WA, and Wisc. I like cold weather. I'm sick of the heat.

no reason for us to want to live back in California. Colorado itself is stunningly beautiful.

We moved two years ago from Chico to Arizona.

we are going to Kalispell mt.

We are heading for Gig Harbor Wa.

My daugher moved back to Tennessee

We sold that house after only a year and moved to Southern Utah

Be sure you understand how truly HOT it is in Vegas...we are usually a few degrees cooler in St George than Vegas and it is unbearable.

in reference to moving from CA to San Antonio, you wouldn't be alone. Californians are moving down here in DROVES.

We are looking at Northern Co, Loveland/Ft Collins area, also looking at Tulsa and possibly Boise, Idaho.

We moved from Sac a year ago to Portland, OR

I heard great things about Austin

I have considered Austin Texas myself....I may end up in Texas, Tennesee or somewhere similar.

born and raised in Cali, We are moving out next summer to Colorado,

You'll find very few if any people who have regretted their move from California to Colorado

We left to move to Southern Florida

I moved back to my home state (Michigan)

we are actually considering moving BACK to California.....AZ has been affordable

Nope, not moving.

Victorville California has More Foreclosures Than Homes For Sale

More valley homes in foreclosure than for sale

TATIANA PROPHET
November 14, 2007 - 9:38AM

VICTORVILLE — There are more homes headed for foreclosure — or already on the auction block — than there are for sale, according to listing service RealtyTrac. In Victorville, 1,366 homes are in pre-foreclosure, indicating the owner has received a notice of default. There are 314 homes on the auction block and 659 owned by the bank as of Monday. By contrast, 442 homes were listed for sale in Victorville, 46 by owner, 303 by realty company and 93 as new homes.

http://www.vvdailypress.com/news/homes_3693___article.html/sale_victorville.html

Third Quarter Foreclosure Activity

Here is Realty Trac 3rd quarter report showing the percentage of households in foreclosure. By state Nevada is 1st, California is 2nd and Florida is 3rd. Arizona is at 7th at one foreclosure for every 112 households (Nevada at #1 has one foreclosure per every 61 households).

http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3567&accnt=64847

There is also a colored map showing which counties in each state have the most foreclosures. Mohave, Maricopa and Pinal appear to have the most in Arizona and of course Clark county is the highest in Nevada.

http://www.realtytrac.com/blog/photos/foreclosurepulse_photos/images/3397/original.aspx

I put this in the comments, but the link doesn't seem to show up. Here is the chart by metro area.

http://www.realtytrac.com/ContentManagement/pressrelease.aspx?ChannelID=9&ItemID=3609&accnt=64847

More on San Diego Housing Prices

Think home-price slide is over? The worst appears yet to come

UNION-TRIBUNE
November 4, 2007

After more than a year's worth of the Great American Mortgage Crisis, some real estate professionals still think the law of supply and demand will kick in to prevent home prices in San Diego from dropping too low.

But people often forget that the economic concept of “demand” also includes “ability” – i.e., ability to pay. As lenders tighten their standards on mortgages – standards that never should have gotten as lax as they were in the past few years – fewer San Diegans will have the ability to buy homes at their current prices.

The median family income in San Diego County is $69,400, according to the latest data from the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development. That puts us slightly below the median family income of $73,700 in Madison, Wis.; $71,400 in Denver; $72,600 in Norwich, Conn.; or $72,800 in Worcester, Mass. – to cite some examples from HUD's database.

Although we make less money than the people in those cities, we pay more than twice as much for our housing.

In San Diego, the median sale price of an existing single-family home in the second quarter was $614,000, according to the National Association of Realtors. Compare that with $223,500 in Madison, $255,200 in Denver, $276,600 in Norwich and $278,900 in Worcester.

According to the Census Bureau, we are the 42nd-most-expensive county in the nation for median housing costs for owner-occupied units. But we are 142nd on the list of highest-paying metropolitan areas.

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/calbreath/20071104-9999-1b4dean.html

Valley Housing Market Dismal

November 2nd, 2007 @ 7:43am
by Hanna Scott and Jon Zimney/KTAR

Arizona ranks among the top 10 states in the nation in foreclosures, the number of homes for sale in the Valley is at its highest level in years, and people who absolutely must sell face problems.

``Once we take the listing, we tell them up front that we have to adjust the price every 30s days," said Avi Asallas of Century 21."

And he makes no promises. ``Before, we could sell a house within 30 to 60 days, but now we cannot put a time frame on it because there are so many properties."

One of the biggest problems is the competition from new auctions and foreclosures popping up every day, he said.

Meanwhile, a number of Valley residents are going through foreclosure.

``I bought a house for $400,000 in Maricopa, and my house isn't even worth $280,000," said one woman.

http://ktar.com/?nid=6&sid=636171

Mogul's advice to Realtors: Don't keep your day job

The Southern California market will get worse before it gets better, he warns a gathering. One survival strategy: Slash prices, now.

By Peter Y. Hong, Los Angeles Times Staff Writer
November 3, 2007

Even Realtors can lose faith in the housing market.
Speaking to a gathering of industry professionals Friday, longtime California real estate titan Fred C. Sands called the housing market "pathetic" and said some agents needed to start looking for other work.

"If you've been in it for five or six years and are barely making a living, you might want to think about what you were doing before and get back into it -- you can come back in a couple of years," Sands told members of the California Assn. of Realtors meeting in Universal City.

In the short term, the local real estate market "is not going to get better," Sands said.

http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-homes3nov03,0,7824038.story?track=mostviewed-storylevel

Statement on Federal Reserve Rate Cut

October 31, 2007
For immediate release

Washington, DC - Congressman Ron Paul, ranking member of the Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy (DIMP), and a nationally recognized expert on monetary policy, issued the following statement regarding the Federal Reserve’s decision to again lower interest rates:

“ America ’s economic difficulties, especially the problems in the housing market, are the direct result of the Federal Reserve’s inflationary policies. In the past year, we have seen MZM grow by 12%, yet the Fed continues to inflate the money supply. While prices for gold, oil, and staple commodities continue to rise, the purchasing power of the dollar for all Americans continues to fall. Inflationary monetary policies created the problems in the economy we are seeing, and these problems will be made worse, not better, by more inflation. Today’s action by the Fed is very bad news for American workers and retirees who are about to get hit with yet another jump in prices.

Make no mistake, the problems faced by the American people are not caused by unscrupulous mortgage brokers or the rising price of oil. These are symptoms of an economic disease caused by a spendthrift Congress enabled by loose monetary policy. Too many pundits praise the weak dollar as benefiting exporters, but they fail to see the harm done to thrifty, hard-working Americans. Rather than continuing to pursue a policy of easy credit and increasing debt, we need to return to a sound monetary system.”

http://www.house.gov/paul/press/press2007/pr103107.htm

Residents Against Irresponsible Development

Nicholas Wilbur Miner Staff Writer

The critics used to go by the name Residents Against Irresponsible Development, a group that has, for the past year, been at every city Planning & Zoning and Council meeting carrying those little "RAID" binders filled with notes and questions and homework and research and flyers. Now, the critics are being critiqued by other critics. What a world.

The Miner doesn't secretly orchestrate the RAID symphony, as some in the community have indicated, but because the criticisms have been reduced to name-calling and falsification of facts, I think it's only appropriate that they be addressed.

Basically, a group of critics have come out against RAID, but they're making it personal and avoiding the real issues voters face on Tuesday.

These critics are getting nervous because while they were writing blogs, RAID was attending meetings, asking questions, demanding that the city have some forethought in policy decisions and representing concerns of local residents who didn't want a dog kennel across the street or a liquor store next to a school, a church and a park. RAID has worked to gather signatures to put two issues on the Nov. 6 ballot. One was for a rezone that upset some neighbors near Castle Rock Road. The developer refused to try and diffuse the concerns, despite the mayor's request that he work with them. RAID stood up, took it out of City Council's hands and now you are voting on it.

http://www.kingmandailyminer.com/main.asp?SectionID=4&SubSectionID=4&ArticleID=13474

Now That Housing Has Soured, Renters Are Glad They Didn't Buy

by Jane Hodges Thursday, November 1, 2007

With the housing-market slowdown, tightening mortgage-lending standards and rising home foreclosures, renters are more easily answering the question: "Why rent when you can own?" Such a question was common during the housing boom, when homeowners, happy with the gains their homes were making -- at least on paper -- would urge non-property-owner friends to join the party.

http://finance.yahoo.com/real-estate/article/103796/Now-That-Housing-Has-Soured,-Renters-Are-Glad-They-Didn’t-Buy;_ylt=Aj2Wv4omaWX98Fa2B599fhC7YWsA